基于热带气旋风圈半径的海上风电场灾害预警时间估计方法研究及应用-海洋预报

基于热带气旋风圈半径的海上风电场灾害预警时间估计方法研究及应用

单位：1. 中国长江三峡集团有限公司科学技术研究院, 北京 100038;
2. 武汉中心气象台, 湖北武汉 430074;
3. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;
4. 中国气象局上海台风研究所, 上海 200030;
5. 国家海洋环境预报中心，北京 100081

关键词：风圈半径海上风电热带气旋预警

分类号：P732.3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第三期（66-74）

摘要：

利用2001—2019年美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的热带气旋最佳路径数据集，统计分析了西北太平洋上影响我国沿海的热带气旋的移速、强度和风圈半径等气候特征。结果表明： 8级、10级和12级热带气旋风圈半径的平均值分别为198.2 km、111.6 km、70.6 km，且风圈呈现不对称性，东北象限风圈半径最大，西南象限最小；风圈半径与强度变化呈现正相关关系；热带气旋移速、强度和风圈半径在各海域的空间分布特征明显不同，且8级和12级风圈半径随纬度变化存在显著差异。在气候特征分析的基础上，基于风圈半径、移速、强度和离岸距离等变量，提出一种针对海上风电场的热带气旋灾害预警时间估算方法，并根据不同风圈半径给出其预警时间的空间分布特征，为有效利用海上风能和开展抗台风措施提供参考。

Using the optimal trajectory dataset of typhoon from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) during 2001—2019, this study analyses the climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific which affect the offshore areas of China, including their motion speeds, intensities and wind radii. The results show that: the mean wind radii of 34 kt (R₃₄), 50 kt (R₅₀), 64 kt (R₆₄) are 198.2 km, 111.6 km, 70.6 km, respectively. The cyclone-associated wind field is asymmetrical, with the maximum radii in NE quadrant and the minimum radii in SW quadrant. The mean wind radii have a positive correlation with the intensities of the tropical cyclones. Moreover, the spatial patterns of tropical cyclones’ motion speeds, intensities and wind radii vary largely in different ocean areas, and significant difference exists in the wind radii with respect to different latitudes for R34 and R64. Finally, based on the analysis of the climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones, an estimating method of disaster warning time for offshore wind farms is established, providing the spatial distribution of disaster warning time according to different wind radii. This method benefits for the effective utilization of offshore wind power.

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