基于多源数据的长江口概率风暴潮预报系统-海洋预报

基于多源数据的长江口概率风暴潮预报系统

单位：1. 上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院, 上海 201300;
2. 华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062;
3. 上海市海洋监测预报中心, 上海 200062;
4. 河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏南京 210024

关键词：风暴潮集合预报概率预报 FVCOM

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第一期（10-20）

摘要：

将6个气象预报机构对西北太平洋一带台风的预报数据合并为一个分析数据。根据分析数据，共得到 45个台风样本（5条台风路径、3个台风最大风速和 3个台风中心气压），基于 WRF和FVCOM 模型建立了一套适用于长江口及附近海域的风暴潮预报系统，以热带气旋“利奇马”（201909）为例，利用该预报系统进行了模拟预报，实现了风暴潮的集合预报和概率预报。结果表明，该系统对增水具有较好的预测精度，可提供各增水场的发生概率。

The typhoon forecast data of six meteorological forecasting agencies for the northwest Pacific Ocean are selected and combined into one analysis data, based on which a total of 45 typhoon samples are derived including 5 tracks, 3 maximum wind speeds and 3 central air pressures. A storm surge prediction system for the Changjiang Estuary and its offshore areas is established by using the WRF and FVCOM models. The system is used to simulate the storm surge along the Changjiang Estuary caused by the tropical cyclone "Lekima" (201909), and the ensemble forecast and probability prediction of storm surge are realized. The results show that the system has a good prediction accuracy for storm surge, and can provide the occurrence probability for each surge field.

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