基于现场调查的台风“天鸽”（1713）和台风“山竹”（1822）风暴潮灾害影响和致灾对比分析-海洋预报

基于现场调查的台风“天鸽”（1713）和台风“山竹”（1822）风暴潮灾害影响和致灾对比分析

单位：1. 自然资源部海洋减灾中心, 北京 100194;
2. 自然资源部南海规划与环境研究院, 广东广州 510310

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第五期（94-99）

摘要：

基于现场调查，科学识别1713号台风“天鸽”和1822号台风“山竹”两次风暴潮灾害对珠海造成的海水淹没和承灾体受损情况，并对致灾差异和受影响情况进行对比分析。结果表明：两次台风的路径、登陆点和强度高度相似，因此珠海市出现大面积海水淹没和灾害损失的区域也高度相似，但由于台风“天鸽”路径更偏北、登陆时间恰逢珠江口天文大潮期以及台风结构更紧实、冲击力更强等原因，导致台风“天鸽”风暴潮灾害造成的海水淹没区域范围和深度大于台风“山竹”。此外，由于群众防灾减灾意识进一步加强，海岸工程设施进一步加固等原因，也使台风“山竹”风暴潮灾害损失远小于台风“天鸽”。

Typhoon "Hato" (1713) and typhoon "Mangkhut" (1822) struck the Pearl River Delta in two years, resulting in large areas of coastal inundation and damage to disaster-bearing bodies, especially in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province that was most severely affected. Based on field survey, the situation of seawater inundation and damage of disaster-bearing body caused by the two storm surge disasters of typhoon "Hato" (1713) and typhoon "Mangkhut" (1822) in Zhuhai are scientifically identified, and the difference in disaster-causing and affected conditions are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the paths, landfall points and intensities of the two typhoons are highly similar, which causes the areas of large-scale seawater inundation and disaster losses in Zhuhai are also highly similar. However, the inundation area and depth caused by typhoon "Hato" is greater than that caused by typhoon "Mangkhut" due to the more northerly path, the coincidence between the landing time and the astronomical spring tide period in the Pearl River Estuary region and the compact structure and strong impact force of typhoon "Hato". At the same time, the damage of "Mangkhut" storm surge is much less than that of "Hato" storm surge because of the further strengthened public awareness of disaster prevention and mitigation as well as the further reinforced coastal engineering facilities. The analysis of the two disaster processes can provide references for the validation of storm surge early warning and the targeted implementation of marine disaster risk survey and prevention in each local area.

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