西北太平洋热带气旋生成在不同最佳路径集资料中的差异特征分析-海洋预报

西北太平洋热带气旋生成在不同最佳路径集资料中的差异特征分析

单位：中国卫星海上测控部, 江苏江阴 214431

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第三期（37-46）

摘要：

利用1951—2017年中国气象局(CMA)、日本气象厅(JMA)和美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)的最佳路径资料,研究了西北太平洋热带气旋生成特征及不同资料间的差异特征。结果表明:对于热带气旋生成位置,1—8月生成纬度逐步北抬,9—12月逐步南移,12月—次年4月中国南海和2—6月170°E以东海域几乎无热带气旋生成;每年最早热带气旋生成平均纬度为3月最小,3—7月随月份增加而增加。热带气旋生成时间(两两资料对比)总体为JMA-CMA差异最小(相关系数最大)而JMA-JTWC最大(相关系数最小);年平均差异均呈现出线性下降趋势;热带气旋活跃的夏秋季节,月平均差异均维持在各自总体均值附近变化,非活跃的冬季月份间相差较大。热带气旋生成早晚比例(两两资料对比)总体为JMA≤CMA和JMA≤JTWC,CMA≤JTWC的概率更大;年平均中均存在某一情形(JMA>CMA、JMA=JTWC和CMA=JTWC)比例较小且随年份稳定在一定区间内变化,另外两种情形随年份呈现出此消彼长的变化趋势和明显的年代际变化特征;月平均中大多数月份JMA<CMA和JMA<JTWC的概率更大,而5—10月CMA<JTWC的概率更大。

Using the best track data of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA), the Japan Meteorology Agency(JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) of the United States from 1951 to 2017, the characteristics of the tropical cyclogenesis(TCG) in the northwest Pacific and the difference among different datasets are studied in this paper. The results of the statistical analysis show that the location of TCG gradually moves northward from January to August, and gradually moves southward from September to December. Few tropical cyclone(TC) generates in the South China Sea from December to April and in the sea area east of 170°E from February to June. The average latitude of the first TCG is the lowest in March, and increases from March to July. For the time of TCG, the overall difference is the smallest(correlation coefficient is the largest) between JMA and CMA, and is the largest(correlation coefficient is the smallest) between JMA and JTWC. The difference of annual average shows a linear decrease trend. The monthly average differences show small variation in summer and autumn of the TC active season, while there is large variation in winter and spring of the TC inactive season. For the ratio of TCs that generated earlier or later, the overall possibility is greater for JMA less or equal to CMA, JMA less or equal to JTWC, CMA less or equal to JTWC. The annual variation shows a small and sustainable possibility for the situations of JMA greater than CMA, JMA equal to JTWC and CMA equal to JTWC, while the other two situations of each dataset show characteristics of see-saw and inter-decadal variation.The monthly variation shows that the probability of JMA less than CMA and JMA less than JTWC is greater in most months, and the probability of CMA less than JTWC is greater from May to October.

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