热带气旋季节预报业务进展-海洋预报

热带气旋季节预报业务进展

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P457.8

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2018·35·第六期（92-99）

摘要：

主要回顾了近30 a来国内外热带气旋季节预报的研究和业务进展，对热带气旋季节预报的发展历史进行系统性梳理，总结了国内外有关热带气旋季节预报的主要研究/业务机构、预报模式及预报产品等。进一步的，讨论了热带气旋季节预报发展中存在的问题，并对尚待研究的问题进行了展望，为我国热带气旋季节预报的研究和业务化工作提供参考。

This article briefly reviewed the progress of operational seasonal forecast of tropical cyclones in the last 30 years. The article introduces the major operational center or research institutions, organizations, models, and the forecast products around the world, with a brief summary of the historical development of tropical cyclone seasonal forecast and a discussion of the potential issues and research gaps hindering further improvement of tropical cyclone seasonal forecast. This summary will contribute to the improvement of research and operational seasonal forecast system of tropical cyclones in China.

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