基于概率估算的南海中尺度涡强度定级方法-海洋预报

基于概率估算的南海中尺度涡强度定级方法

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 海军海洋水文气象预报中心, 北京 100161

分类号：P731.2

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2018·35·第一期（60-63）

摘要：

根据预报工作的实际，选用中尺度涡振幅作为强度指标，首先用概率大小定义强度等级，然后将强度等级和衡量中尺度涡的强度量值——振幅的大小一一对应，给出中尺度涡强度分级方案的同时，提出了以风险评估为基本思路，以概率分布为主要工具的强度定级新方法。这一方法取代纯经验的指标设置，提供一种新的有依据的定级方法。基于实际工作需求，使用概率阈值21\15\10 cm定义中尺度涡强度等级，将中尺度涡强度分为4级。

A new method is developed with amplitude used as an index to categorize the intensity of meso-scale eddies to improve the forecasting description. Instead of empirical subjectivity, this method is based on risk assessment and probability distribution. Based on the practical need, the intensity of meso-scale eddies is categorized into 4 levels utilizing the threshold of 21/15/10 cm.

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