海洋气候变化预估及研究方法综述-海洋预报

海洋气候变化预估及研究方法综述

单位：1. 厦门大学海洋与地球学院, 福建厦门 361005;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
3. 国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P732.5

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2017··第六期（89-98）

摘要：

概述了目前预估的未来海洋气候变化状态，总结了在气候变化预估中常用的气候模式，包括简单概念性气候模式、中等复杂程度气候模式、气候系统模式和地球系统模式，介绍了海洋气候变化预估的多模式集合法和动力降尺度法。指出当前对一些对气候变化影响较大的区域海洋和气候系统自然变率的模拟预估研究还存在很多不足之处。高分辨率气候系统模式和基于多模式集合的概率预估可以在一定程度上减少海洋气候变化预估的不确定性，高分辨率气候模式的研发和概率预估的应用是当前的两个主要发展趋势。

The projection of the main ocean climate changes in the future are generalized. The major climate models used to simulate the ocean climate are summarized, including Simple Conceptual Climate Models (SCMs), Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity(EMICs), General Circulation Models(GCMs) and Earth System Models(ESMs). The methods of multi-model ensemble and dynamical down-scaling in the ocean climate change projection are introduced. The paper points out some proposals on the projection of ocean climate change research. The projection of some regional oceans and climate system natural variabilities which have great values to the climate change is still under a low level. High-resolution climate system models and probabilistic prediction can efficiently reduce the projection uncertainty. The research and development of high-resolution climate models and application of probabilistic prediction are the two main study direction.

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