摘要:
|
基于贝叶斯理论建立了一种基本概率预报模式,将欧洲中期天气预报中心数值模式的确定性海面风场预报转换为概率预报,并对概率化后的释用产品进行了评估与检验。对2016年3月和4月释用产品的检验结果表明,在中国近海1 425个渔区的全风速预报中,贝叶斯概率预报准确率均较高;对6级及以上大风的预报,贝叶斯概率预报的准确率也较高,且空报率低,无漏报。本文的研究成果为预报员进行业务预报具有指导性意义,同时将为进一步构建海面风场的网格化业务预报体系奠定了技术基础。 |
Based on Bayesian theory,a basic model of the probabilistic forecast was established out of the deterministic forecast of European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF).The probability forecast from March to April 2016 was evaluated by using ERA-Interim.The results show that the probability forecasts of both all wind and strong wind have better forecast values over China sea.This study not only provides a guidance forecast for forecaster and user,but also lays the foundation for building gridding operational forecast system of 10 meter wind over China sea. |
参考文献:
|
[1] Gneiting T,Raftery A E,Westveld Ⅲ A H,et al.Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation[J].Monthly Weather Review,2005,133(5):1098-1118. [2] Wilks D S.Extending logistic regression to provide full-probabilitydistribution MOS forecasts[J].Meteorological Applications,2009,16(3):361-368. [3] Raftery A E,Gneiting T,Balabdaoui F,et al.Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles[J].Monthly Weather Review,2005,133(5):1155-1174. [4] Hamill T M,Whitaker J S.Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs:Theory and application[J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(11):3209-3229. [5] 周秀骥.大气随机动力学与可预报性[J].气象学报,2005,63(5):806-811. [6] Kelly K S,Krzysztofowicz R.Bayesian revision of an arbitrary prior density[C]//Proceedings of the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science.Alexandria:American Statistical Association,1995:50-53. [7] Kelly K S,Krzysztofowicz R.A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology[J].Stochastic Hydrology and hydraulics,1997,11(1):17-31. [8] 俞小鼎,张艺萍.天气预报技巧和价值的关系[J].气象科技,2004,32(6):393-398. [9] 陈朝平,冯汉中,陈静.基于贝叶斯方法的四川暴雨集合概率预报产品释用[J].气象,2010,36(5):32-39. [10] 陈法敬,矫梅燕,陈静.亚高斯贝叶斯预报处理器及其初步试验[J].气象学报,2011,69(5):872-882. [11] Herr H D,Krzysztofowicz R.Generic probability distribution of rainfall in space:The bivariate model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2005,306(1-4):234-263. [12] Taylor K E.Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2001,106(D7):7183-7192. [13] Hirota N,Takayabu Y N,Watanabe M,et al.Precipitation reproducibility over tropical oceans and its relationship to the double ITCZ problem in CMIP3 and MIROC5 climate models[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(18):4859-4873. [14] Chen L,Yu Y Q,Sun D Z.Cloud and water vapor feedbacks to the El Niño warming:Are they still biased in CMIP5 models?[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(14):4947-4961. |
服务与反馈:
|
【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】
|
|
|