台州温岭市风暴潮淹没危险性分析

作者：郑国诞1 2 3  谢亚力1 2 3  胡金春1 2 3  陈韬霄1 2 3

单位：1. 浙江省水利河口研究院, 浙江 杭州 310020; 2. 浙江省海洋规划设计研究院, 浙江 杭州 310020; 3. 浙江省河口海岸重点实验室, 浙江 杭州 310020

关键词：风暴潮 台风浪 淹没 越浪量 溃堤

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2016·33·第六期（40-50）

摘要：

利用MIKE21FM模块建立了适用于台州温岭市的高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式，以9711号台风路径为基准，分别以5 km为间隔向两侧平移，构造各种设计台风路径，找到最不利登陆位置进行风暴潮计算，再利用SWAN计算不利路径的堤前台风浪要素，通过经验公式计算越浪量，进行溃堤判断。最后将各路径的淹没计算结果取最大包络，画出6档台风的风暴潮淹没范围图。结果表明：在最高等级的915 hPa时，由于沿海堤防几乎全溃，因此处于沿海平原区的乡镇基本受淹，随台风强度降低淹没水深及范围逐渐减小，最低等级的965 hPa时无淹没，其他等级风暴潮淹没介于两者之间。

The typhoon storm surge is the main type of natural disasters in Wenling city. So it has a very important significance to analyze the storm surge inundation risk. In this paper, the MIKE21FM module was used to establish a high-resolution storm surge floodplain numerical model which was applicable to Wenling City. Based on the Typhoon "9711", the value 5 km as the intervals on both sides of pan was used to construct various design typhoon path, in order to find the most unfavorable landing position to calculate the storm surge, and then the SWAN model was used to calculate the wave elements of the most unfavorable landing position. The empirical formula was used to calculate overtopping discharge to judge dike break. Finally, the largest envelope value from the calculated result was used and drew the storm surge submerged area map under six-speed typhoon. At the highest level 915 hPa, dike of coastal was almost broken, and the rural communities along the coastal were basically flooded, while there was no flooding at the lowest level 965 hPa, and the flooding extent at other grades of the storm surge were in between. The typhoon intensity was decreased with depth and scope of the drowned gradually.

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