进入西沙海域的TC活动的统计特征及环流初探-海洋预报

进入西沙海域的TC活动的统计特征及环流初探

单位：国家海洋局南海预报中心, 广东广州 510300

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2016·33·第一期（71-79）

摘要：

利用1949—2014 年CMA-STITC热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据集对进入的TC源地、路径、强度和频数等活动特征进行统计分析,并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料对其环境场进行初探。结果表明:每年9、10 月份进入西沙海域的TC居多,进入时其强度不尽相同,以台风强度进入的居多;进入西沙海域的TC来源于西北太平洋和来源于南海的各占50%,前者进入时强度偏强,后者的偏弱;来源于西北太平洋的TC进入路径主要有4 种,分别为穿过菲律宾北部、中部、南部和巴士海峡后进入西沙海域,穿过菲律宾中部进入的居多,其次为穿过菲律宾北部进入,穿过巴士海峡进入的极少,而来源于南海的路径较为怪异;进入西沙海域的TC个数具有年代际变化特征;厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)发展(衰减)年份进入西沙海域的TC的源地、路径、强度和频数存在差异。来源于西北太平洋的TC以不同路径进入西沙海域其环流形势存在差异。

The characteristics of activity including the source, path, intensity and number of tropical cyclones which entered Xisha area from 1949 to 2014 are statistical analyzed, using the data set of CMA-STI Tropical Cyclones Optimal Tracks. It figures out that, majority of tropical cyclones entered Xisha area happen in September and October of each year, and the intensity varies when they are entering Xisha area, the strength of most are typhoon when entering Xisha area. The proportion of tropical cyclones entered Xisha from the northwest Pacific and from South China Sea is 50%, respectively. The strength of former is stronger than that of latter when they are entering Xisha area. There are four kinds of path entering Xisha area for tropical cyclones from the northwest Pacific, and they are through the northern Philippines, the central Philippines, the southern Philippines and Bashi Channel then forward Xisha area. Majority are through the central Philippines into Xisha area, followed by the path of through the northern Philippines, and minority is through Bashi Channel. The path of tropical cyclones from South China Sea is weird. The number of tropical cyclones entered Xisha area shows decadal variation. In El Nino (La Nina) development (decay) years, the characteristics of the source, path, intensity and number of tropical cyclones entered Xisha area are different. The surrounding circulation varies while tropical cyclones from the northwest Pacific enter Xisha area with different way.

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