北极东北航道海冰变化特征分析研究-海洋预报

北极东北航道海冰变化特征分析研究

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.15

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2013·30·第二期（8-13）

摘要：

21世纪以来，北极海冰正在发生快速变化，海冰覆盖范围明显减小，厚度显著变薄，在此背景下，东北航道的提前开通成为可能。本文对多年来北极东北航道内的海冰变化特征和近几年东北航道的开通情况进行了分析研究，认为东北航道在9月份开通的可能性最大，8月份次之，10月份通航的困难较大；历年的航道开通起始时间变化较大，俄罗斯新西伯利亚群岛和北地群岛，与大陆之间的海冰对东北航道的开通起着关键作用。东北航道的海冰年际变化较大，这给未来东北航道使用带来了较大挑战。

Arctic sea ice is changing rapidly since the 21 th century. So the earlier open time of Northeast Passage becomes possible with the decreasing of sea ice coverage and thinning of sea ice thickness. This paper studies the climatic characteristics of the sea ice motion and the opening condition of the Northeast Passage in recent several years. The results show that the opening time of the Northeast Passage has the greatest possibility in September, and then in August, but there is more difficulties in October. The opening time of the Northeast Passage is changing greatly from year to year. The sea ice located in the New Siberian Islands, Severnaya Zemlya and the Russian mainland determines the opening time of the Northeast Passage. The large interannual variation will bring a challenge to the use of the Northeast Passage in future.

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