中国的海啸灾害危险性及海啸预警系统——解读2011年太平洋海啸演习-海洋预报

中国的海啸灾害危险性及海啸预警系统——解读2011年太平洋海啸演习

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2012·29·第五期（9-16）

摘要：

新世纪以来频发的海啸灾害引起了国际社会的广泛关注,各滨海国家不仅加大了在海啸预警建设和海啸灾害危险性、海啸基础理论研究方面的投入,更进一步加强了国际社会在应对海啸灾害方面交流与合作。为测试太平洋各国海啸预警系统的有效性以及政府职能部门的应急管理能力,切实提高各国区域和局地海啸的应对水平,促进国家和地区间海啸预警的交流与合作,联合国教科文组织政府间海洋学委员会(IOC/UNESCO)决定2011年11月9—10日,在整个太平洋地区举行一次代号为"Exercise Pacific Wave 11"的海啸演习。此次演习恰逢日本"3.11"大地震海啸发生后的8个月,通过本次演习对督促太平洋各国进一步检验本国的海啸预警系统、评估本国的海啸危险性均有着重要的意义。中国作为IOC和太平洋海啸预警系统的成员国,积极组织实施了我国历史上第一次涉及当地人员疏散的海啸演习。本文将在本次演习所涉及的海啸源评估、海啸数值计算的基础上,应用新的海啸灾害分级标准对我国沿海的海啸危险性和海啸预警系统进行重新评估分析,期望本文的研究将为今后的海啸预警及海啸灾害评估工作提供科学的决策依据标准。

Frequent tsunami disasters have already given rise to extensive attentions of international society since the new century. The coastal countries not only increased investment in the construction of tsunami early warning, tsunami hazard and tsunami foundation theory research, but also further promoted international exchanges and cooperation in response to the tsunami disasters. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO hold a Pacific-wide tsunami warning and communication exercise on 9 and 10 November 2011, which was code-name Exercise Pacific Wave 11'. The purpose of the exercise were mainly to test tsunami early warning system validity of Pacific Country Tsunami Warning Focal Points, to improve the level of response to regional and local tsunamis effectively and promote exchanges and cooperation among national tsunami early warning center. The exercise is held just after eight months of Japan tsunami on 11th March 2011. The exercise has significance for urging Pacific countries to test tsunami warning system and assessing the tsunami risk. As a member of the IOC and the Pacific tsunami warning system,China organized and implemented the first time of tsunami evacuation drills. The aim of this paper is to re-analyze China's tsunami hazard and reappraise China's tsunami early warning system based on Exercise Pacific Wave 11' tsunami sources and numerical calculation for regional and local tsunami sources. This study will service as decision basis for tsunami disasters prevention and mitigation.

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