我国部分测站台风潮重现期的计算

作者：王喜年  陈祥福

单位：国家海洋局海洋环境预报中心

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分类号：

出版年·卷·期（页码）：1984·1·第一期（18-25）

摘要：

我国是世界上经常受风暴潮袭击的国家之一,因此,很需要计算每个测站《大增水值的重现期。首先,我们用耿贝尔方法,计算了资料序列长的17个站的最大增水值的重现期。在这些站计算的最大增水值的频率分布与由历史资料计算的重现期吻合得较好。其二,我们还用三种方法计算了海口站最大增水位的重现期并进行了计算结果的比较。最后,我们计算了湛江站的最高潮位的频率分布。其计算值与依据历史资料计算的重现期吻合得相当好。计算结果对做风暴潮预报、海岸工程设计和估计风暴潮造成的损失非常有用。

China is one of the countries in the world which are often hit by storm surges, it is, therefore, necessary to calculate the return peri-od for maximum surge heights at every coastal station. First, 17 co-astal stations which have a long series data were computed by a statistical method due to Gumbel. Computed frequency distributions of maximum surge heights for the stations agrees well with return peri-ods which are from historical data. Secondly, three different methods were used to calculate the return periods for the maximum surge he ight at Haikou station and the calculated results were compared with each other. Finally, the frequency distribution of the maximum tidal height at Zhanjiang station was computed, and the result agrees well with the return period computed from historical data. All of calculated results are very useful for storm surge prediction, coastal engineering design, and estimating the damage of disaster caused by storm surge.

参考文献：

[1] 丹斯.宫崎正卫和杰列斯尼扬斯基,台风风暴潮预报技术手册,(王喜年译),海洋出版社. (1982) [2] 和逹清夫编,津波、高潮、海洋灾害、共立出版株式会社,(1970). [3] 中华人民共和国交通部,港口工程技术规范,第二篇水文第一册海港水文。(1978). [4] 金光炎,水文统计计算,水利出版社,(1980). [5] 金光炎,水文统计的原理与方法,水利电力出版社,(1959)

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