北太平洋海表面温度与西北太平洋台风相关关系的准周期振荡

作者：解思梅1  吉野2  正敏3

单位：1. 国家海洋局海洋环境预报中心; 2. 日本筑波大学地球科学系; 3. 日本气象研究所

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出版年·卷·期（页码）：1985·2·第一期（18-25）

摘要：

本文主要分析了赤道东太平洋海表面温度与西北太平洋台风的相关关系,发现台风与海表面温度(SST)前期相关是正、同期是负、落后时为正,其正-负-正的转换周期2—3年。每次都是先从厄·尼诺海区开始,然后向西传播,从东端(80°w—90°w)传播到西端(180°w—160°w)的时间约需半年。从发生厄·尼诺事件开始,滞后两年是多台风年。另外,还利用了北太平洋SST与西北太平洋台风之间的优质遥相关海区建立了回归方程,在1981—83年的台风试报中,预报准确率约76%。

The correlation between the characteristics of variation of SST in the Equatorial East pacific (10°N-10°S, 180°W-80°W) and typhoon frequency over the Northwest Pacific is analysed in this paper. It is found that the preceding correlation of SST with typhoon frequency is positive, the simultaneous correlation is negative and the lag correlation is also positive. The transition period of P-N-P is about 2-3 years. Every transition always starts at the El Nino area, then propagates westwards. The time propagating from the east end (80°W-90°W) to the west end (180°W-60°W) needs about half an year. It is the year rich in typhoon two years after the starting of EL Nino event. Furthermore, a regression equation is established for he area having the good teleconnection between SST in the North pacific and typhoon frequencies over the Northwest Pacific, and the accuracy in pridiction employing the regression equation reached nearly 76% for the test forecasting of typhoon during the period of 1981-83.

参考文献：

[1] 长坡昂一,气象,7.9(1983). [2] Yoshino, M,M and Xie Simei,Sci.Reps.,Inst, Geosci,Univ. Tsukuba.Sect. A, Vol,4,1983.1-23. [3] 吉野正敏、解思梅、青木孝、筑波大学研究报告,第7号.1983, 63-68(日文). [4] Yoshino,M,M, and Xie Simei,WMO Progvamnae on Researich in Tropical Meteorology,151-152. [5] 解思梅、青木孝、吉野正敏.天气,第30卷10(1983), 495-502(日文). [6] 解思梅、吉野正敏、青木孝,海洋学报.第6卷,5期(1984), 594-606.

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