东海及外缘海域表层海水温度场的分析与预报

作者：杜碧兰  袁小军

单位：国家海洋局海洋环境预报中心

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分类号：

出版年·卷·期（页码）：1986·3·第一期（1-9）

摘要：

东海及外缘海域月平均表层海水温度场变化的持续性较好,正温度距平场最长可持续18个月,负温度距平场可持续14个月。能谱分析结果表明,由于该区受黑潮暖流系统的控制,存在明显的6、7年周期。 文中给出了几种以数理统计为基础的表层水温场预报方法,即单要素和多因子的经验正交场分解时间序列预报方法,对东海及外缘海域月平均表层海水温度场进行了连续6年(1978-1983)的实时预报,其效果比较稳定,预报误差较小,从1978～1983年的平均预报误差为0.53℃。

The monthly mean sea surface temperature(SST) field of the East China Sea and the adjacent waters has good continuity, the positive temperature anomaly field is able to last for 18 months and negative anomaly field for 14 months. The results of energy spectrum analysis show that the dominant period of 6.7 years exists in the forecasted area because of being in control of the Kuroshio warm current system.The some forecast methods of SST field based on mathematical statistics are given in this paper, those are the methods of mono-factorial and multi-factorial empirical orthogonal field decomposion with time series prediction.The suggested methods have been used for forecasting practice of monthly mean SST field in the East China Sea and the adjacent waters for six years(1979-1983).The forecasted result is relatively stable and forecasted error during 1979 to 1983 is 0.53℃.

参考文献：

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