太阳活动11年周期与埃尔-尼诺现象形成的关系

作者：李自强  马生春

单位：北京总参气象中心, 北京

关键词：埃尔-尼诺现象 11年太阳周期 埃尔-尼诺现象与太阳活动11年周期的关系

分类号：

出版年·卷·期（页码）：1995·12·第一期（19-25）

摘要：

本文利用本世纪以来所出现的埃尔-尼诺现象和太阳活动资料。分析了太阳活动11年周期单周和双周内埃尔-尼诺现象的发生频数及其差异,并分析了单周和双周内埃尔-尼诺现象的形成与太阳活动11年周期位相的关系,以期对埃尔-尼诺现象的预测提供太阳活动的背景。

It is shown by a preliminary analysis of the positive anomaly of appearance frequency of E1 Nino events occurred in the even numbered 11-year solar cycle and the negative anomaly in the,odd numbered.11-year solar cycle since the beginning of the 29th century that the difference beween the mean value of appearance frequency of E1 Nino events in the even numbered 11-year solar cycle and in the odd numbered 11-year solar cycle is very marked, and the appearance frequency of E1 Nino events in the 11-year solar cycle are characterized by positive and negative anomaly alternatoly.It is 4so found that the phases of the even and odd 11-year solar cpcle in which the E1 Nino events occurred are quite different.In the evens numbered 11-year solar cycle,most of E1 Nino events occurred in the phase of m-2 →m+1, M-2→M-1 and M+3→m-3;while in the odd numbered 11-year solar cycle,most of E1 Nino events occurred in the phase of m+1→m+2and M+1→M+2.In addition,The E1 Nino events occurred in the.peak value(phase of 11-year solar cycle are all the persistent E1 Nino events.

参考文献：

[1] 张家诚等, 气候变迁及其原因, 科学出版社, 1976. [2] 杨鉴初, 北太平洋水面温度对太阳活动的响应, 1975年.长江流域水文气象预报讨论会技术经验交流文集. [3] 张先恭, 埃尔-尼诺与太阳活动的关系, 气象, 14卷2期, 1988. [4] 王绍武, 1860-1979年期间的埃尔-危诺年, 科学通报, 第1期, 1985. [5] ENSO监测小组, 埃尔-尼诺事件的划分标准和指数, 气象, 第3期, 1989. [6] 王绍武、赵宗慈, 长期天气预报基础.上海科学技术出版社, 1987. [7] 章基嘉、葛玲, 中长期天气预报基础, 气象出版社, 1983. [8] Schove, D. J., The sunspot cycle 649 B.C. to A.D. 2000, J.Geophys, Res., 60(2), 127-146, 1955. [9] Willett, H.C., solar variability as a factor in the fluctuations of climate in geological time, Geogoafiaka Ann., ARG., 31, 1949. [10] 王绍武, 大气环流振动的周期与大阳活动关系, 气象学若干问题进展, 科学出版社, 1963.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】