| 数值预报产品在台风路径预报中的应用 |
| 作者：季晓阳 |
| 单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 |
| 关键词：数值预报产品 台风路径预报 |
| 分类号： |
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| 出版年·卷·期（页码）：1996·13·第一期（16-22） |
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摘要：
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| 利用欧州中期天气预报中心和国家海洋环境预报中心的数值预报产品,形成包括理想台风模型的模式初值,用正压原始方程做台风路径预报,经过1994年的6个台风的实时预报试验,效果较好。 |
| An idealized typhoon vortex is constructed and superposed upon the objective analysis and forecasting fields come from ECMWF and National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC). The initial values for typhoon forecasts are obtained through this composite analysis scheme. Real-time forecasts for 6 cases in 1994 were carried out by a barotropic model with the usage of numerical forecasting products from ECMWF and NMEFC. It is shown from Verificatinn that the forecasting results are satisfactory. |
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参考文献：
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[1] 王琴,朱水褆,热带气旋路径趋势数值班报的试脸研究.应用气象学报,Vol.3,No.3, 273-289,1992.
[2] Gary, W. L. and Elsberry, Foretaste of Typhoon Irma Using a Neeeed-Grid Model, Montyty Weather Review,Vol.104(1976),1154-1161. |
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