渤、黄海冰情与华北地区降水关系的分析-海洋预报

渤、黄海冰情与华北地区降水关系的分析

单位：1. 北京大学物理学院大气科学系, 北京, 100871;
2. 国家海洋环境预报研究中心, 北京, 100081

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2004·2004·第二期（1-8）

摘要：

本文利用北京1932~2000年逐月降水量资料、渤、黄海海冰资料及1951~2000年气候因子资料,运用相关分析方法对冬季渤、黄海冰情与华北地区降水的关系进行了探讨,研究结果表明:冰情与降水存在着条件相关,如果海冰冰级达到2.5级以上且冬季副高较前一年有增强趋势,年降水大于平均值的可能性很大。这一点是对华北降水进行预测的一个新发现,对华北年降水趋势预测有着积极的作用。根据冰情与副高可判断当年降水的趋势。

Based on monthly rainfall in Beijing for the period from 1932 to 2000, the sea ice status on Buohai-Yellow sea and the climatic factors in the atmosphere durin g the period from 1951 to 2000, the correlationship between the sea ice status on Buohai-Yellow sea and the rainfall in North China is discussed. The result shows that there is a h igh correlation between the sea ice status and the rainfall in North China. If the grade of the sea ice is greater than 2.5 and the intension of subtropical high in winter is increased th an last year, there is a great possibility that the annual rainfall is greater than the average one, and this is a new discovery for the prediction in North China, it has an active role for annual rainfall trend prediction in North China. According to the sea ice status and su btropical high, we can judge the annual rainfall trend in North China this year.

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