ENS0事件对淮河流域降水的影响-海洋预报

ENS0事件对淮河流域降水的影响

单位：南京师范大学地理科学学院南京 210097

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2005·2005·第二期（38-46）

摘要：

研究表明,ENSO事件和淮河流域降水异常之间有明显的相关性。功率谱分析显示ENSO的冷事件和暖事件有三个共同的明显周期,即18个月、26个月和47个月;淮河流域降水异常的周期成分复杂,但同样存在明显的26个月周期。对ENSO事件年份淮河流域降水异常的年内分布规律的分析结果表明:ELNino年份的春季和冬季降水明显增多,而在LANina年份降水普遍减少,尤其以7月减少最为显著;在SO指数偏高年份,淮河流域降水明显减少,尤其是9、10、11三个月,减少量都在30%以上;而在SO指数偏低年份,春季和冬季降水明显增多。时间序列的滞后分析发现淮河流域降水异常对ENSO事件有3个月左右的响应滞后时间,对ELNino响应的滞后时间大约4~5个月。

Studies show that there is evident correlation between ENSO events and the abnormity of Huaihe river basin’s precipitation. Through power spectrum analysis, there are three obvious common periods, 18 months、26 months and 47 months, for ENSO events. The abnormal of Huaihe River basin’s precipitation is very complex, however there is a periods of 26 months, same as that of ENSO events. We found the annual distribution law about the abnormity of Huaihe river basin’s precipitation in ENSO events is that: In El Nino year, the precipitation increases in spring and winter, while in La Nina year, the precipitation decreases, especial in July. When SOI is high, the Huaihe river basin’s precipitation evidently decreases, especial in September、October and November, the decrement is more than 30%. While SOI is low, the Huaihe river basin’s precipitation evidently increases.

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