环境温度场的异常变化与台风的趋暖运动-海洋预报

环境温度场的异常变化与台风的趋暖运动

单位：1. 浙江师范大学卫星遥感研究中心, 浙江, 金华, 321004;
2. 金华市气象局, 浙江, 金华, 321000

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2007·24·第四期（13-19）

摘要：

根据美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的温度资料,以近年来在我国华东登陆或近海转向的台风为例,对台风中心附近的异常增温与未来移动方向进行诊断分析。结果发现:中、高层台风中心附近的异常增温对台风未来的移动趋势有着很好的指示作用,尤其是对台风的移动方向突然改变具有预报意义,强增温区及脊(轴)线方向预示着台风未来的移动方向。由此得出了一条台风路径预报的新途径。

NCEP reanalysis data are used in this paper to diagnose the movement direction of typhoon that landfall on the east China or off-ocean in recent years, and the temperature information is used to analyze the relationship between the abnormal temperature increase around the typhoon center and the movement direction of the typhoon in future. The result shows that the abnormal temperature increase near the center of typhoon at high and middle layers is related to the tendency of movement in future. The stronger temperature increase area and the orient of ridge (axis) line indicate the direction of the typhoon shift towards in future. Thus a new way of prediction of movement is given.

参考文献：

[1] Oda M,Itano T,Naito G,et al.Destabilization of the symmetric vortex and formation of the elliptical eyeof typhoon herb[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,2005,62(8):2965～2976.
[2] Murata A,Saito K,Ueno M.The effects of precipitation schemes and horizontal resolution on the major rainband in typhoon Flo (1990) predicted by the MRI mesoscale nonhydrostatic model[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2003,82(1-4):55～73.
[3] 仲荣根.台风加(减)速运动的诊断预报方法及路径预报[J].海洋学报,1995,17(4):56～63.
[4] 袁金南,肖伟生.海温变化对台风路径的影响[J].广东气象,2002,(3):1～2.
[5] 贺海晏.台风移动规律的研究[J].热带气象学报,1995,11(1):2～9.
[6] 杜惠良,刘建勇,钮学新.0216号台风森拉克路径分析[J].热带气象学报,2004,20 (3):281～288.
[7] 胡春梅,段宏义,余晖,等.华南地区登陆前突然减弱和突然加强的两类热带气旋进行大尺度诊断分析[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(4):377～382.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】