人类活动影响与三大洋海表水温的变化及数值模拟-海洋预报

人类活动影响与三大洋海表水温的变化及数值模拟

单位：南京解放军理工大学气象学院南京 211101

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2008·25·第四期（90-101）

摘要：

本文利用实测的全球气温、海表水温资料以及全球海气耦合气候模式的控制试验与CO2加倍试验模拟结果资料来探讨人类活动对三大洋海温的可能影响。结果表明:近百年来三大洋海温总体呈现上升趋势,但太平洋海温有其独立变化特点;FGOALS1.0_g耦合模式有较好地模拟三大洋海温的能力;模式模拟结果证实了人类活动影响(CO₂浓度增加)将会使全球气候变暖;但模式模拟结果没有证实由于CO₂浓度增加会导致三大洋海表水温明显的增高趋势。

The Pacific SST, the Atlantic SST and the Indian Ocean SST may be affected by human activities (CO₂ concentration increase). In this article, the possible changes of the three oceans’ SST are analyzed by diagnosing the measured global atmospheric temperature, the ocean SST and simulating the experiments of CO₂ concentration steady and double with the coupled GCM-FGOALS 1.0_g. The result shows that the Pacific SST changes independently though the three oceans’ SST tend to increase in total during the recent hundred years. The three oceans’ SST are able to be simulated well by the coupled GCM-FGOALS 1.0_ g. Anthropogenic influence (CO₂ concentration increase) will induce global climate warming and that has been conformed by the simulation, but the simulation hasn’t make sure whether the CO₂ concentration increase will result in the three oceans’ SST higher evidently.

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