影响山东热带气旋活动的气候特征与太平洋海温的关系-海洋预报

影响山东热带气旋活动的气候特征与太平洋海温的关系

单位：1. 山东省潍坊市气象局, 山东, 潍坊, 261011;
2. 南京大学大气科学系, 江苏, 南京, 210093

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2009·26·第二期（44-56）

摘要：

利用1949～2003年热带气旋年鉴资料,对55年来影响山东热带气旋(TC)活动的气候特征与太平洋海温的关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)在厄尔尼诺年,影响山东的TC频数较常年明显偏少。厄尔尼诺次年TC频数较常年稍有增加;拉尼娜年影响山东的TC频数较常年显著偏多,增加明显的月份主要是8月和9月,拉尼娜次年,影响山东TC频数偏少。厄尔尼诺事件强度越大,影响山东的TC频数越少;(2)影响山东的TC数和菲律宾以东洋面的海温呈正相关,并具有很好的持续性。影响山东的TC多年,赤道中东太平洋有较强的负距平区,影响山东的TC少年,赤道中东太平洋为正距平区;(3)厄尔尼诺年,影响山东的TC强度偏强。拉尼娜年,影响山东的TC强度明显偏弱。影响山东的TC强度厄尔尼诺年要比拉尼娜年强很多;(4)影响山东TC偏强年在赤道中东太平洋有较强的正距平区,影响山东TC偏弱年在赤道中东太平洋地区有较强的负距平。综上说明赤道中东太平洋的海温高低对影响山东的TC频数和强度有较好的指示作用。

Based on tropical cyclone yearbook data from 1949 to 2003,relationship between climate characteristics of tropical cyclone(TC) activities influencing Shandong Province and sea surface temperature in the Pacific is analyzed.Some results are indroduced as follows:(1) There are less frequencies of TC influencing Shandong Province in El Nino years and more frequencies in the next year of El Nino years.By contrary,there are more frequencies in La Nina years and less frequencies in the next year of La Nina years,August and September are the main months for the increasing of TC frequency in La Nina years;the greater the intensity of El Nino event,the less the frequencies of TC influencing Shandong Province.(2) There exists positive correlation between the TC numbers influencing Shandong Province and the SST anomalies in the East ocean of Philippines with high persistence.In the years of more TC influencing Shandong Province,the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific shows positive anomaly,in the years of less TC things are inverse;(3) There are stronger intensity of TC influencing Shandong Province in El Nino years and weaker intensity in La Nina years.In other words,there are stronger intensity of TC influencing Shandong Province in El Nino years than that of TC in La Nina years;(4) In the years of stronger TC influencing Shandong Province,the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific appears in the positive anomaly,while in the years of weaker TC the sea surface temperature shows negative anomaly.Above all,it indicates that the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has instructive effect on the frequency and intensity of TC influencing Shandong Province.

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