基于数值模式的苏北浅滩海域单站最大风速和极大风速预报方程建立-海洋预报

基于数值模式的苏北浅滩海域单站最大风速和极大风速预报方程建立

单位：国家海洋局东海预报中心, 上海 200136

分类号：P732.4

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第二期（34-39）

摘要：

利用苏北浅滩海域预报和观测数据，基于平均风速与最大风速、最大风速与极大风速的高度相关性，以及高精度数值预报产品，运用统计分析方法建立了苏北浅滩5个测站大风（风速≥10.8 m/s）发生时逐时最大风速和日极大风速的预报方程。通过检验发现：单站一元一次客观预报方程能准确地预报逐时最大风速，5个测站最大风速预报平均绝对误差为1.30 m/s，预报评分在81～85分之间，预报误差大于4 m/s的样本数在2%～6%之间。区分天气形势进行分析，冷空气最大风速预报精度最优，台风次之。日极大风速预报平均绝对误差为1.99 m/s，预报评分在65～76分之间，预报误差大于4 m/s的样本数在5%～10%之间。最大风速和日极大风速客观预报方程的效果都比较理想，但是对8级风速以上（风速≥17.2 m/s）的预报结果偏小。

Based on the mean wind speed, maximum wind speed, high correlation between the maximum wind speed and extreme wind speed of the forecast and observation data in the northern Jiangsu shoal, a forecasting equation is established for hourly maximum wind speed and daily extreme wind speed at 5 observation stations when the gale with wind speed equal or greater than 10.8 m/s occurs using statistical analysis method. The validation results show that linear regression equation can accurately forecast the hourly maximum wind speed. The mean absolute error of maximum wind speed forecast at the 5 stations is 1.30 m/s with the forecast scores between 81 and 85, and the proportion of the samples with absolute error greater than 4 m/s is between 2% and 6%. The forecast accuracy under different weather conditions is analyzed, which reveals that the maximum wind speed forecast accuracy of cold air is optimal followed by the typhoons. The mean absolute error of daily extreme wind speed is 1.99 m/s with the forecast scores between 65 and 76, and the proportions of the samples with absolute error greater than 4m/s is between 5% and 10%. In summary, the effects of objective forecast equation for maximum wind speed and daily extreme wind speed are relatively satisfactory. However, the forecast result is smaller when the wind force scale exceeds eight (wind speed equal or greater than 17.2 m/s).

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