近40年全球海洋热浪的时空特征和机制-海洋预报

近40年全球海洋热浪的时空特征和机制

单位：1. 厦门大学海洋与地球学院, 福建厦门 361102;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
3. 自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P732.6

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第六期（90-101）

摘要：

基于1982—2021年美国国家海洋和大气管理局日最优插值海表温度资料，采用最小二乘回归、经验正交函数和相关分析等统计方法，分析了全球海洋热浪的时空特征和机制。结果表明：在过去的40年里，伴随平均海表温度的逐年上升，海洋热浪的发生频率、平均强度、最大强度、累积强度、持续时间和总天数都呈现上升趋势。基于对海洋热浪强度分类的分析进一步发现，不同强度类别的年平均海洋热浪日呈非均匀区域性分布特征，且中等强度的海洋热浪天数最多。历史基准期的选择会影响海洋热浪的气候态和阈值，是海洋热浪检测的一个重要问题。我们对去倾（全球变暖趋势）后的海洋热浪总天数进行经验正交函数分析发现，除全球变暖外，太平洋年代际振荡和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对海洋热浪的年际特征起着主导作用。

Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Daily Optimal Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature V2(OISST V2) data during 1982-2021, we analyze the spatial-temporal characteri-stics and controlling factors of global marine heatwaves using statistical methods such as least square regression,empirical orthogonal function, and correlation analysis. The results show that the frequency, mean intensity,maximum intensity, cumulative intensity, duration and total days of marine heatwaves have shown an upward trend associated with increasing SST in the past 40 years. Further analysis of marine heatwave intensity shows that the annual mean marine heatwave days categorized by different intensity exhibits uneven regional distribution, with majority concentrating on medium intensity. The select of historical baseline period affects the climatology and threshold of marine heatwaves, which is an important issue in marine heatwave detection. After conducting an Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to the detrended total days(i.e., global warming trend), it is found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation play a dominant role in the interannual variation of marine heatwaves.

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