南海-西北太平洋季风槽及其与热带气旋的关系：不同再分析资料对比-海洋预报

南海-西北太平洋季风槽及其与热带气旋的关系：不同再分析资料对比

单位：1. 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海南海口 570203;
2. 海南省气候中心, 海南海口 570203

分类号：P732.3；P425.4⁺2

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第六期（78-89）

摘要：

利用1981—2020年中国气象局（CMA）热带气旋最佳路径数据集、CMA大气再分析资料（CMA-RA）、欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料（ERA5）及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料（NCEP-I），对比CMA-RA与ERA5、NCEP-I对南海-西北太平洋季风槽及其与南海热带气旋活动关系的表现能力，探讨CMA-RA的适用性。结果表明：不同资料均表征出南海和西北太平洋西段槽区低层气旋式涡旋明显、东段均匀的特征，CMA-RA和ERA5对低层涡度场描述的差异较小。两两资料间得到的季风槽强度的相关性较高，且为CMA-RA>ERA5>NCEP-I，对南海槽区的描述差异最大；对东伸点的刻画具有较高一致性，CMA-RA较ERA5和NCEP-I偏西；但对南北位置的刻画一致性较差，其中CMA-RA与ERA5的差异较小。所有资料均刻画出季风槽区中、低层强辐合、高层强辐散的结构，沿105°~160°E平均的涡度垂直剖面差异以CMA-RA与ERA5最小、CMA-RA与NCEP-I最大。CMA-RA季风槽与热带气旋频数关系最密切，ERA5次之，ERA5季风槽强度与热带气旋强度关系最密切，ERA5和CMA-RA季风槽东伸点与热带气旋强度关系较NCEP-I密切。总体来看，CMA-RA对季风槽及其与南海热带气旋活动关系的刻画具有与ERA5和NCEP-I相当的表现能力，且与ERA5的一致性高。

Based on the 1981-2020 data of the tropical cyclone best track data of China Meteorological Administration(CMA), CMA atmospheric reanalysis data(CMA-RA), the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis dataset(ERA5) and the first generation NCEP/NCAR atmospheric monthly reanalysis dataset(NCEPI), the performance and applicability of CMA-RA in describing the South China Sea-Western North Pacific monsoon trough and its relationship with tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea are analyzed, with respect to the ERA5 and NCEP-I data. The results show that:Different datasets consistently represent the characteristics of obvious low level cyclonic vortex feature in the South China Sea and western Northwest Pacific, and uniform distribution in the eastern Northwest Pacific, CMA-RA and ERA5 have a little difference in describing the low-level vorticity. Different datasets have a high correlation in monsoon trough intensity, the overall intensity pattern is CMA-RA>ERA5>NCEP-I, and the intensity of the South China Sea monsoon trough varies greatly; The depictions of the eastern extension point have a high consistency, where that of CMA-RA is further west than those of ERA5 and NCEP-I; The descriptions of the north-south position have a lower consistency, the difference of CMA-RA and ERA5 is relatively small. All the datasets depict the vertical structure of strong convergence in the middle and lower layers and strong divergence in the upper layers of the monsoon trough region, and the difference between CMA-RA and ERA5 is the smallest, CMA-RA and NCEP-I is the largest in the vertical cross section of vorticity averaged over 105°~160°E. The monsoon trough of CMA-RA is most closely related to tropical cyclone frequency, followed by ERA5, the monsoon trough intensity of ERA5 is most closely related to tropical cyclone activity intensity, and the monsoon trough eastern extension point of ERA5 and CMA-RA have closer relationship with tropical cyclone activity intensity than that of NCEP-I. As a whole, CMA-RA has comparable performance with ERA5 and NCEP-I in characterizing the monsoon trough and its relationship with tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, and it's highly consistent with ERA5.

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