我国台风风暴潮灾害损失的时空演变特征分析-海洋预报

我国台风风暴潮灾害损失的时空演变特征分析

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 北京林业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第六期（21-32）

摘要：

综合Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Pettitt突变检验法、Morlet小波分析法和标准差椭圆空间分析法等统计学分析方法，分析得到我国风暴潮灾害损失的时空分布和演变趋势。结果表明：从时间上来看，1989—2018年间，我国风暴潮灾害频次呈显著上升趋势，死亡人口和直接经济损失呈下降趋势；1999年和2009年为人口死亡数量的突变点，突变点后呈加速下降趋势；从2006年开始直接经济损失呈加速下降趋势，这与我国防灾减灾政策的不断深化有关。在周期波动方面，风暴潮灾害损失频次具有2 a和8 a的显著主周期特征；死亡人口与频次波动规律相似，但主周期不具有显著性；直接经济损失较人口和频次波动更为复杂，存在2~8 a的多重主周期嵌套特征，2 a和8 a主周期具有显著性，3~5 a主周期不显著。从空间上来看，因风暴潮造成的损失在我国东南沿海地区最为严重，30年间风暴潮频次呈现出高发区向西南转移和更为聚集的特征，人口损失和直接经济损失均呈现出在1999—2008年间聚集的现象，死亡人口整体没有显著的偏移趋势，直接经济损失呈现出向西南转移的特征。

The Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis and standard deviation elliptic spatial statistics were used to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution trend of storm surge disaster damages in China. The results show that during 1989 and 2018, the frequency of storm surge disasters increased while the fatalities and direct economic losses decreased. The mutation points of death population are 1999 and 2009, thereafter the death population shows an accelerating descending. The direct economic losses show an accelerating descending since 2006, relating to the developing of the national disaster prevention and reduction policy. The frequency of storm surge disaster damages shows significant periodic fluctuation of 2 years and 8 years. The frequency of death population is similar to that of storm surge disaster damages, but the main periodic fluctuation is not significant. Direct economic losses are more complex than fatalities and frequency fluctuations, with nested characteristics of multiple main periods between 2 and 8 years, which are significant for 2 and 8 years and insignificant for 3 to 5 years. The damages caused by storm surge and frequency are the most serious in the southeast coastal areas of China. In the past 30 years, areas with high storm surge frequency has shifted to the southwest and become more concentrated. Both the death(missing) population and the direct economic losses show aggregation phenomenon during 1999-2008. There is no significant shift in fatalities overall, and the direct economic losses show southwest transformation.

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