1979—2022年北极海冰范围变化特征及趋势分析-海洋预报

1979—2022年北极海冰范围变化特征及趋势分析

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.32；P727

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第五期（49-55）

摘要：

利用被动微波辐射计海冰范围遥感数据产品开展了1979—2022年北极海冰范围的变化特征及趋势分析。结果表明：研究期海冰范围明显呈现逐渐减少趋势，2004年之前海冰范围呈增减交替式的缓慢减少模式，2004年之后夏秋季海冰范围呈现多年连续减少、间隔单年大幅增加的振动衰减模式；1979年3月海冰范围最大，达到16.15×10⁶ km²，2012年9月海冰范围最小，仅为3.49×10⁶ km²。通过海冰范围变化速度的趋势线分析可知海冰的减少速度正在逐渐减小，但夏秋季的减少速度变化微弱。按照当前的海冰范围减少趋势推断，21世纪60年代初期北极夏秋季大规模的当年冰将基本消失。通过距平分析，10月海冰范围波动逐渐加大，融冰期呈延长趋势。

The characteristics and trends of Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2022 are analyzed using passive microwave radiometer remote sensing data products. The results show that the Arctic sea ice extent exhibits a clear decreasing trend during the study period. Prior to 2004, the is ice extent displays a slow decreasing pattern with alternating increases and decreases. After 2004, there is a vibrational attenuation pattern that the sea ice extent decreases continuously for several years before experiencing a single-year large increase. The maximum sea ice extent occurs in March 1979, reaching 16.15 million square kilometers, while the minimum extent appears in September 2012, at only 3.49 million square kilometers. Trend line analysis of sea ice extent change speed indicates that the annual decrease rate is gradually slowing down, but the decrease rate in summer and autumn remains weak. According to current trend of sea ice reduction, the amount of first year ice in summer and autumn in the Arctic will basically disappear by early 2060s. Anomaly analysis shows that fluctuation in October sea ice extent is increasing, and the melting season is prolonging.

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