一种热带气旋路径相似性快速计算方法研究-海洋预报

一种热带气旋路径相似性快速计算方法研究

单位：1. 海南省海洋监测预报中心, 海南海口 570206;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
3. 航天宏图信息技术股份有限公司, 北京 100195

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第四期（72-82）

摘要：

两条路径相似的热带气旋在一定程度上反映了两个系统背景场的变化和发展的相似性。在海洋预报中，热带气旋路径相似性可用于台风风暴潮预报的相似台风匹配和筛选。本文分析了现有热带气旋路径相似性计算的优势和不足，提出了一种基于形态的热带气旋路径相似计算的方法。以公开的热带气旋路径数据集为数据源，设计了与动态时间规整法和弗雷歇距离法的对比试验，用于验证本文算法的有效性。试验结果表明：本文算法计算的相似路径在空间形态上与对比算法的结果相当或略优，但耗时较短，仅为动态时间规整法的27%、弗雷歇距离法的57%，计算效率较高。

Two tropical cyclones with similar paths reflect the similarity in the variability and development of their background fields in both systems. In storm surge forecasting, tropical cyclone path similarity is used for searching similar typhoons. In this paper, the advantages and shortcomings of existing tropical cyclone path similarity calculation are analyzed, and a morphology-based method of tropical cyclone path similarity algorithm is proposed. Comparison tests with the dynamic time regularization method and the Fréchet distance method are designed to verify the effectiveness of the new algorithm in this paper, using the CMA Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset. The experimental results show that the similar paths calculated by the new algorithm in this paper are comparable or slightly better than the results of the comparison algorithms in terms of spatial morphology, but the computational efficiency is higher, at a rate of 27% of the dynamic time regularization method and 57% of the Fréchet distance method.

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