不同海浪数值预报产品在渤海和黄海的预报水平评估-海洋预报

不同海浪数值预报产品在渤海和黄海的预报水平评估

作者：李文博¹ 2 李锐¹ 2 王彬¹ 2 张薇¹ 2 高山¹ 2 侯乔琨¹ 2 孙雅文¹ 2

单位：1. 山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室山东青岛 266100;
2 自然资源部北海预报减灾中心山东青岛 266100

分类号：P731.22

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第四期（10-21）

摘要：

选取欧洲中尺度天气预报中心、美国国家环境预报中心和自然资源部北海预报减灾中心2021年的海浪数值预报产品与渤海和黄海10个海洋观测浮标和5个海洋站观测的有效波高数据进行对比，评估3种产品对海浪有效波高的预报水平。结果表明：从整体来看，3种数值预报产品对24 h 2 m以上有效波高的预报相对误差均不超过19%，欧洲中尺度天气预报中心的误差最低，但三者对于大浪过程的预报值整体偏低。通过分析不同月份、不同海域以及不同天气过程下有效波高的预报误差发现，3种产品在渤海和黄海中部的有效波高预报误差大于黄海北部，近岸的有效波高预报误差高于外海，欧洲中尺度天气预报中心对冷空气期间海浪预报效果较好，自然资源部北海预报减灾中心对温带气旋期间海浪的预报效果更好。

This paper focuses on a comprehensive comparison of the significant wave height forecasts in 2021 at leading time of (24 h, 48 h, 72 h and 96 h) from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Forecasting System (GFS), and North China Sea Marine Forecast and Hazard Mitigation Center of The Ministry of Natural Resources (NMFC), with respect to observations from 10 ocean buoys and 5 ocean stations in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. The results show that all the forecast errors of 24 h significant wave height (>2 m) from the three sources are no more than 19%, among which the forecast error of the EC product is the lowest. All the three products underestimate the 24 h significant wave height when the waves are very large. By analyzing the forecast error according to different scenarios (different month, different area and different weather situation, etc), the results show that the forecast error of significant wave height in the Bohai Sea and the central Yellow Sea is higher than that in the northern Yellow Sea, and the error in the nearshore is higher than that in the open sea. The EC forecast is the best for the waves associated with cold air activities, while the NMFC forecast is the best for the waves associated with the extratropical cyclone activities.

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