中国近海2022年灾害性海浪分析及2023年预测-海洋预报

中国近海2022年灾害性海浪分析及2023年预测

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081;
3. 河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室, 江苏南京 210098

分类号：P731.22

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第四期（1-9）

摘要：

总结分析了2022年中国近海有效波高≥ 4 m的灾害性海浪过程及灾情概况，并对2022年度的预测结果进行了检验。根据1979—2022年有效波高≥ 4 m的灾害性海浪的统计资料、2023年副热带高压和热带气旋的分析预测资料，结合采用线性回归方法的趋势预测结果以及相似年分析，预测2023年中国近海将出现灾害性海浪过程39～42次，较2022年增多，较常年略偏多，其中灾害性台风浪过程为15～18次，主要发生在东海、台湾海峡和南海，灾害性冷空气浪和气旋浪过程为23～25次，与常年持平；同时预测了各海区灾害性海浪过程出现天数，预测结果可为2023年的海洋防灾减灾提供重要参考。

This study analyzes disastrous waves with significant wave height over 4 m in China offshore waters and assesses its forecasts in 2022. Based on the historical statistical data from 1979 to 2022, the analysis and prediction data of subtropical high and tropical cyclone in 2023, the prediction data of environmental trend utilizing linear regression method and the similarity analysis of similar years, it is predicted that there will be 39～42 disastrous wave processes in China offshore waters in 2023. This number is larger than that of 2022 and slightly higher than climatology. In 2023, prediction suggests: 15～18 disastrous typhoon wave processes in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea; 23～25 disastrous cold air waves and cyclonic waves, which is at the same level as usual. Moreover, number of occurrence days of disastrous wave processes in each seas are also predicted, providing an important reference for marine disaster prevention and mitigation in 2023.

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