基于三维联合分布的登陆影响广西县域超强台风“威马逊”的灾害风险评估-海洋预报

基于三维联合分布的登陆影响广西县域超强台风“威马逊”的灾害风险评估

单位：1. 广西气候中心, 广西南宁 530022;
2. 广西气象局, 广西南宁 530022;
3. 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海), 广东珠海 519082;
4. 南宁师范大学数学与统计学院, 广西南宁 530100;
5. 广西北部湾海洋灾害研究重点实验室, 广西钦州 535000

关键词：广西县域三维联合分布台风灾害风险评估

分类号：P444；P732.3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第三期（85-96）

摘要：

利用1409号超强台风“威马逊”登陆广西的灾害数据，构建三维联合分布函数，对各县域的台风灾害风险进行评估。选取过程降水量（X₁）、最大风速（X₂）和地区生产总值（X₃）作为变量，通过K-S检验及拟合优度效果的比较，得到适于拟合三变量的最优分布。基于三变量相互独立的关系构造三维联合分布，采用共现超越概率表征灾害风险的程度，按自然断点法将超越概率值划分为5个风险区间，绘制台风灾害风险区划图。结果表明：共现超越概率与各灾情评价指标之间呈负相关关系，并与综合灾情评价指标存在较高的相关关系；地理位置从北至南的县域台风灾害风险呈上升趋势，台风灾害风险大的地区主要集中在北海市、钦州市、防城港市和南宁市，这与实际灾情基本相符。

Based on the disaster data of super typhoon "Rammasun", the typhoon disaster risk for each county in Guangxi Province is evaluated by constructing three-dimensional joint distribution function. Process precipitation (X₁), maximum wind speed (X₂) and gross regional product (X₃) are selected as variables, and the optimal distributions suitable for fitting the three variables are obtained by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparison of the goodness-of-fit effects. Based on the independent relationship among the three variables, a three-dimensional joint distribution is constructed, and the co-occurrence exceedance probability is used to indicate the degree of disaster risk. The exceedance probability values are divided into five risk intervals according to the natural breakpoint method, and the typhoon disaster risk zoning map is drawn. The results show that the co-occurrence exceedance probability values are negatively correlated with all disaster evaluation indexes, and have a high correlation with comprehensive disaster evaluation indexes. Moreover, the typhoon disaster risk ascends according to the latitude of each county from north to south, and severe typhoon disaster risk locates in Beihai, Qinzhou, Fangchenggang and Nanning, which is basically consistent to the actual disaster situation.

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