警戒潮位核定中重现期高潮位计算方法的探讨-海洋预报

警戒潮位核定中重现期高潮位计算方法的探讨

单位：宁波海洋环境监测中心站, 浙江宁波 315012

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第三期（28-34）

摘要：

针对警戒潮位核定中重现期高潮位计算问题，优化了高潮同步相关法的计算步骤。将核定站年极值高潮位经G-I分布直接得到的重现期高潮位作为客观值，将通过参考站年极值高潮位间接得到的重现期高潮位作为计算结果，以宁波海域湖头渡水文站和乌沙山海洋站、镇海水文站和镇海海洋站、大目涂水文站和石浦海洋站这3对潮位站的实测潮位资料为基础，计算并比较了高潮同步相关法、潮位同步相关法、极值同步差比法和年极值相关法的计算结果误差。结果显示，对于有1个月～5年连续实测潮位资料的核定站，潮位同步相关法计算结果的精确度和稳定性优于高潮同步相关法；对于有5～20年连续实测潮位资料的核定站，当数据年限较长且核定站与参照站同期年极值高潮位呈显著强相关时，年极值相关法的计算结果优于极值同步差比法。

To estimate tide level in sea level return periods in the warning water level determination, the high tide correlation method are optimized using observation data from three pairs of tide gauge stations located along the coast of Ningbo. Four methods, i. e. the high tide correlation method, the tide level correlation method, the extreme value difference ratio method and the annual extreme value correlation method, are used to calculate the tide level in return periods, and the errors of these methods are compared. The results show that for the tide level data with the length of 1 month to 5 years, both the accuracy and stability of the tide level correlation method are better than those of the high tide correlation method. For the data with the length of 5 to 20 years, the annual extreme value correlation method is better than the extreme value difference ratio method when the correlation of observation data between the determination station and the reference station is strong.

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