台风“烟花”浙江极端降水成因分析-海洋预报

台风“烟花”浙江极端降水成因分析

单位：1. 浙江省绍兴市气象局, 浙江绍兴 312000;
2. 浙江省诸暨市气象局, 浙江诸暨 311800

分类号：P458.1⁺21

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第五期（37-47）

摘要：

利用浙江省常规气象观测资料、ERA5逐小时再分析资料（0.25°×0.25°）和卫星云图等资料，分析2106号台风“烟花”在浙北东部沿海和浙西北山区产生极端降水的原因。结果表明：台风“烟花”引导气流弱，移动速度慢，其螺旋云带和本体云系范围广，台风强度维持时间长，影响浙江时间长达7 d，是造成此次极端降水的主要原因，但降水效率不高。西南急流和偏东急流为台风提供持续强盛的水汽输送，925 hPa水汽通量辐合区对未来6 h强降水落区和降水强度有一定指示意义。浙北东部沿海四明山一带和浙西北山区有中尺度辐合带长时间维持，导致中尺度对流系统不断发展，“列车效应”是造成极端降水的重要原因。此次降水地形增幅作用明显，山脉迎风坡地形使水汽辐合抬升，对流和锋生加剧，降水系统移速减慢，持续时间变长，降水量增大。

Using the conventional meteorological observation data of Zhejiang Province, the hourly reanalysis data of ERA5(0.25×0.25) and satellite cloud map data, the extreme precipitation process caused by typhoon "InFa"(2106) in the eastern coast of northern Zhejiang and the mountainous area of northwestern Zhejiang is analyzed. The results show that typhoon "In-Fa" has weak guiding airflow, moves slowly with wide range of spiral cloud belt and main cloud system, and maintains for a long time affecting Zhejiang for up to 7 days, which are the main reasons of the extreme precipitation. However, the precipitation efficiency is not high. The southwest jet flow and easterly jet flow provide sustained and strong water vapor transport for the typhoon, and the convergence area of 925hPa water vapor flux has certain indicating significance for the falling area and precipitation intensity of heavy precipitation in the next 6 hours. In the Siming Mountain area along the eastern coast of northern Zhejiang and the mountainous area of northwestern Zhejiang, the mesoscale convergence zone is maintained for a long time, resulting in the continuous development of mesoscale convective system, and the "train effect" is an important reason for extreme precipitation. The enhancement effect of topography for precipitation is significant. The windward slope topography of the mountain makes the convergence and uplift of water vapor, and the convection and frontogenesis intensifies. Therefore, the precipitation system slows down with the longer duration, resulting in increased precipitation.

参考文献：

[1] 程正泉, 陈联寿, 徐祥德, 等.近10年中国台风暴雨研究进展[J].气象, 2005, 31(12):3-9. CHENG Z Q, CHEN L S, XU X D, et al. Research progress on typhoon heavy rainfall in China for last ten years[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2005, 31(12):3-9.
[2] 陈联寿, 孟智勇.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学, 2001, 25(3):420-432. CHEN L S, MENG Z Y. An overview on tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past ten years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, 25(3):420-432.
[3] 李慧芹, 李江南, 于艳, 等.一次海南秋季台风暴雨的特征和成因分析[J].热带气象学报, 2018, 34(1):133-144. LI H Q, LI J N, YU Y, et al. Analysis of the characteristics and causes of an autumn typhoon rainstorm in Hainan[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2018, 34(1):133-144.
[4] 陈联寿, 孟智勇, 丛春华.台风暴雨落区研究综述[J].海洋气象学报, 2017, 37(4):1-7. CHEN L S, MENG Z Y, CONG C H. An overview on the research of typhoon rainfall distribution[J]. Journal of Marine Meteorology, 2017, 37(4):1-7.
[5] 陈联寿, 许映龙.中国台风特大暴雨综述[J].气象与环境科学, 2017, 40(1):3-10. CHEN L S, XU Y L. Review of typhoon very heavy rainfall in China[J]. Meteorological and Environmental Sciences, 2017, 40(1):3-10.
[6] 潘劲松, 周玲丽, 陆玮, 等.两个相似路径台风残余造成局地特大暴雨的成因机制和能量收支对比分析[J].大气科学, 2019, 43(6):1399-1412. PAN J S, ZHOU L L, LU W, et al. Comparative analyses of mechanisms and energy budgets of local extreme rainfall events caused by remnant clouds of two typhoons with similar tracks[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, 43(6):1399-1412.
[7] 李英, 陈联寿, 徐祥德.水汽输送影响登陆热带气旋维持和降水的数值试验[J].大气科学, 2005, 29(1):91-98. LI Y, CHEN L S, XU X D. Numerical experiments of the impact of moisture transportation on sustaining of the landfalling tropical cyclone and precipitation[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2005, 29(1):91-98.
[8] 许映龙, 张玲, 高拴柱.我国台风预报业务的现状及思考[J].气象, 2010, 36(7):43-49. XU Y L, ZHANG L, GAO S Z. The advances and discussions on China operational typhoon forecasting[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2010, 36(7):43-49.
[9] 钱燕珍, 潘灵杰, 段晶晶, 等.三个登陆台风间接造成宁波大暴雨特征分析[J].气象与环境学报, 2019, 35(5):37-45. QIAN Y Z, PAN L J, DUAN J J, et al. Analysis on the characteristics of heavy rainfall in Ningbo indirect caused by three landing typhoons[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(5):37-45.
[10] 黄惠镕, 赵玉春, 荀爱萍, 等. 2013年相似路径台风"苏力"与"潭美"造成福建暴雨落区差异的成因[J].暴雨灾害, 2021, 40(2):136-146. HUANG H R, ZHAO Y C, XUN A P, et al. Causality analysis of difference of heavy rainfall distribution in Fujian caused by typhoons Soulik and Trami along similar tracks in 2013[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2021, 40(2):136-146.
[11] 王毅, 钱燕珍, 段晶晶, 等."温比亚"台风登陆前后大暴雨特征及成因分析[J].海洋预报, 2020, 37(3):62-71. WANG Y, QIAN Y Z, DUAN J J, et al. Analysis on the characteristics and reasons of the heavy rainfall caused by landfalling typhoon "Rumbia"[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2020, 37(3):62-71.
[12] 董加斌, 黄新晴.台风"莫兰蒂"登陆前后引起的浙江沿海地区强降水过程分析[J].应用海洋学学报, 2019, 38(2):198-205. DONG J B, HUANG X Q. An analysis on the rainfall process induced by typhoon Meranti in the coast of Zhejiang Province[J]. Journal of Applied Oceanography, 2019, 38(2):198-205.
[13] 万小雁, 何萍, 陈莹, 等.乐清以北登陆台风"利奇马"和"阿贝"造成温州强降水差异的环境场特征分析[J].气象科学, 2021, 41(2):153-161.WAN X Y, HE P, CHEN Y, et al. Analysis of environmental field characteristics for the difference of heavy rainfall in Wenzhou caused by typhoon "Lekima" and "Abe" landed on north of Yueqing[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2021, 41(2):153-161.
[14] 刘晓波, 储海.双台风形势下长三角地区一次大暴雨过程的成因分析[J].暴雨灾害, 2019, 38(2):97-106. LIU X B, CHU H. Cause analysis of an extremely heavy rainfall event under binary typhoons pattern in Yangtze River delta[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2019, 38(2):97-106.
[15] 项素清, 周梅, 徐亚钦, 等."利奇马"台风的特点及极端强降水的成因分析[J].海洋预报, 2020, 37(5):76-85. XIANG S Q, ZHOU M, XU Y Q, et al. The characteristics of typhoon "Lekima" and the cause of extreme rainfall[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2020, 37(5):76-85.
[16] 郑铮, 潘灵杰, 钱燕珍, 等.台风"利奇马"造成浙江沿海极端强降水的演变特征[J].干旱气象, 2021, 39(2):269-278. ZHENG Z, PAN L J, QIAN Y Z, et al. Evolution characteristics of extreme heavy precipitation in coast of Zhejiang Province caused by typhoon Lekima[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2021, 39(2):269-278.
[17] 林毅, 陈思学, 吕思思. 1601号"尼伯特"台风特大暴雨的中尺度系统特征与成因分析[J].暴雨灾害, 2017, 36(6):542-549. LIN Y, CHEN S X, LYU S S. Mesoscale system characteristics and cause analysis of an excessive rainstorm event triggered by super typhoon Nepartak[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2017, 36(6):542-549.
[18] 董美莹, 陈联寿, 程正泉, 等.地形影响热带气旋"泰利"降水增幅的数值研究[J].高原气象, 2011, 30(3):700-710. DONG M Y, CHEN L S, CHENG Z Q, et al. Numerical study of topography effect on rainfall reinforcement associated with tropical cyclone "Talim"[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2011, 30(3):700-710.
[19] 韩芙蓉, 鹿翔, 梁亮."莫兰蒂"台风暴雨的湿Q矢量和垂直螺旋度分析[J].海洋预报, 2020, 37(1):67-74. HAN F R, LU X, LIANG L. Analysis of wet ageostrophic QVector and vertical helicity of rainstorm of typhoon "Meranti"[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2020, 37(1):67-74.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】