2020年夏秋季北部湾SST异常特征及可能成因分析-海洋预报

2020年夏秋季北部湾SST异常特征及可能成因分析

单位：1. 国家海洋局南海预报中心, 广东广州 510300;
2. 自然资源部海洋环境探测技术与应用重点实验室, 广东广州 510300

关键词：北部湾海表温度异常西太平洋副高西北太平洋反气旋厄尔尼诺热带印度洋全区一致海温模态全球气候变暖

分类号：P731.11

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第四期（79-90）

摘要：

利用MISST海温资料、表层海温实测资料和ERA5再分析资料等，采用天气动力学分析方法，重点对2020年夏秋季北部湾海表温度异常特征及大尺度环流成因进行分析。结果表明：2020年夏秋季北部湾海域SST持续异常偏高，平均SST为历史同期最高。北部湾SST异常偏高与夏秋季西北太平洋大尺度大气环流异常密切相关，2020年夏秋季西太平洋副热带高压持续异常偏强偏西，低层异常反气旋环流长期维持在南海北部，北部湾下沉气流持续偏强，为北部湾SST持续异常偏高提供极为有利的大气环流条件。在全球气候变暖背景下，受前期中部型厄尔尼诺衰减与热带印度洋全区一致海温模态持续异常偏暖影响，2020年夏秋季西北太平洋反气旋持续偏强，使北部湾长期处于西太平洋副高控制下，加剧了北部湾SST异常增暖。

Using the Multi-sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature (MISST) dataset, the in-situ sea surface temperature (SST) observation and the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis for the global climate and weather (ERA5) reanalysis dataset, the characteristics of SST anomaly in Beibu Gulf and the possible causes of largescale circulation in the summer and autumn of 2020 are analyzed based on synoptic dynamics analyze method. The results show that the SST in Beibu Gulf in the summer and autumn of 2020 remains abnormally high, and the average SST is the highest in history during the same period. The abnormally high SST in Beibu Gulf is closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly in the northwest Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn. In the summer and autumn of 2020, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is abnormally stronger and tilts to the westward. The low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation maintains in the northern South China Sea, and the downdraft in Beibu Gulf is constantly stronger, providing extremely favorable atmospheric circulation conditions for the persistent abnormally high SST in Beibu Gulf. In the context of global climate warming and under the influence of the decaying of CP-El Nino event and the persistent abnormally warm of the Indian Ocean basin warming mode (IOBW) in the tropical Indian Ocean, the anticyclones in the northwest Pacific Ocean continues to be stronger in the summer and autumn of 2020, which causes Beibu Gulf under the control of WPSH for a long period, and aggravates the abnormally high SST in Beibu Gulf.

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