2109号台风“卢碧”路径和强度特征及预报偏差分析-海洋预报

2109号台风“卢碧”路径和强度特征及预报偏差分析

单位：1. 福建省气象台, 福建福州 350008;
2. 福建省灾害天气重点实验室, 福建福州 350008

分类号：P457.8

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第三期（10-24）

摘要：

通过自动站、雷达、风廓线雷达等实况资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)全球模式细网格、0.25°×0.25°经纬度分辨率ERA-Interim再分析、WRF_ARW3.9.1数值模式等模式资料,对2109号南海台风“卢碧”的路径和强度进行诊断和预报偏差分析。结果表明:台风“卢碧”在季风槽中生成,副热带高压、高空槽和双台风等的变化和相互作用是导致其移速缓慢和路径曲折的原因;台风的移动一直没有脱离季风槽控制,总体受西南季风气流引导向东北方向移动;台风强度和结构的变化对台风路径亦有一定的影响。模式对南海台风的路径预报并不因时间的临近而趋于准确,仍存在误差,除了关注模式路径预报,更应分析本身预报形势调整引起的路径变化,也应多分析多参考几家模式。强风法则、变压和南亚高压均可作为台风移向的判别依据。地形敏感性试验表明,山脉地形对弱台风路径有一定的影响。台风强度偏弱,大风风圈半径小,在福建省沿海经历了短暂的减弱(6日5—16时)又增强过程,中部沿海在此时间段出现大风是由不同系统相互作用形成的。热带低压升级的时间偏晚,可考虑在17时前后提前将其升级为热带风暴。

Based on the ground data of automatic station, radar and wind profiler, ERA-Interim reanalysis data produced by the ECMWF global fine grid with horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° and the WRF_ARW3.9.1numerical model data, the track and intensity of the typhoon "Lupit"(No. 2109) in the South China Sea are diagnosed and the forecast deviation is analyzed. The results show that typhoon "Lupit" is formed in the monsoon trough, and the variation and interaction of subtropical high, high trough and double typhoons are the causes for its slow moving speed and tortuous track. The movement of the typhoon is constantly under the control of monsoon trough, and is moving northeastward generally guided by the southwest monsoon flow. The changes of typhoon intensity and structure also have a certain impact on the typhoon track. The errors in the typhoon track numerical forecasting is still significant even though the forecast leading time was getting shorter. Therefore, in addition to the consideration of track forecast, the adjustment of forecasting conditions and multiple models should also be analyzed. Strong wind rule, variable pressure and South Asia high can be used as the basis for judging the moving direction of typhoon. The terrain sensitivity test shows that, the underlying mountain topography has a certain impact on the track of weak typhoon. The intensity of the typhoon is weak and the wind circle radius of the strong wind is small. It experiences a short weakening(5: 00—16: 00 on the 6th) and strengthening process along the coast of Fujian province. The strong wind in the central coast during this period is formed by the interaction of different systems. The tropical depression upgrades relatively late, and can be considered to be upgraded to a tropical storm in advance around 17:00.

参考文献：

[1] 陈联寿.对非对称结构及移速突变台风的预报[J].广东气象,1997(S3):12-13.Chen L S.Prediction of typhoon with asymmetric structure and sudden change in moving speed[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,1997(S3):12-13.
[2] 毛夏,孙向明.2005年世界气象组织热带气象工作组会议综述[J].广东气象,2006(1):14-17,38.Mao X,Sun X M.Review of WMO/CAS working group meeting on tropical meteology research,2005[J].Guangdong Meteorology,2006(1):14-17,38.
[3] 农孟松,黎惠金,卢伟萍,等.热带风暴“米克拉”异常路径特征及原因分析[J].广西气象,2003,24(3):8-11.Nong M S,Li H J,Lu W P,et al.Analysis of characteristics of abnormal route of tropical storm 'MEKKHALA' and its formation[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2003,24(3):8-11.
[4] 李波,费建芳,黄小刚,等.0908号台风“莫拉克”异常路径的诊断分析与数值模拟[J].海洋预报,2011,28(2):18-22.Li B,Fei J F,Huang X G,et al.Diagnoses and numerical simulation of the unusual track of Morakot (0908)[J].Marine Forecasts,2011,28(2):18-22.
[5] 张子涵,郑丽娜.登陆北上台风突然转向的预报着眼点[J].海洋预报,2020,37(3):46-53.Zhang Z H,Zheng L N.Forecasting factors of the northward sharp turn of typhoons that make landfall[J].Marine Forecasts,2020,37(3):46-53.
[6] 娄小芬,楼茂园,罗玲,等.“菲特”台风路径和强度预报难点分析[J].海洋预报,2015,32(1):10-19.Lou X F,Lou M Y,Luo L,et al.Analysis of the forecast difficulties for moving track and intensity of typhoon“Fitow”[J].Marine Forecasts,2015,32(1):10-19.
[7] 张文舟,吴增茂.台湾岛对台风移动路径影响的分析[J].海洋预报,1996,13(4):31-38.Zhang W Z,Wu Z M.Analysis of the effects of the Taiwan Island on typhoon tracks[J].Marine Forecasts,1996,13(4):31-38.
[8] 薛纪善,王康玲.多个热带气旋相互作用对南海热带气旋异常路径影响的数值模拟研究[J].广东气象,1994(1):5-7.Xue J S,Wang K L.Numerical simulation study on the influence of multiple tropical cyclone interactions on the abnormal track of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,1994(1):5-7.
[9] 林巧美,潘燕莲,唐仰华.0411号热带风暴路径特点[J].广东气象,2005(3):9-10,34.Lin Q M,Pan Y L,Tang Y H.Track characteristics of tropical storm“0411”[J].Guangdong Meteorology,2005(3):9-10,34.
[10] 陈干劲.一种定量预报台风路径的引导气流法模式[J].广东气象,1995(3):5-7.Chen G J.A guided airflow model for quantitative prediction of typhoon track[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,1995(3):5-7.
[11] 林良勋.广东省天气预报技术手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:66-74.Lin L X.Technical guidance on weather forecasting in Guangdong province[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2006:66-74.
[12] 余锦华,唐家翔,戴雨涵,等.我国台风路径业务预报误差及成因分析[J].气象,2012,38(6):695-700.Yu J H,Tang J X,Dai Y H,et al.Analyses in errors and their causes of Chinese typhoon track operational forecasts[J].Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(6):695-700.
[13] 陈瑞闪.台风[M].福州:福建科学技术出版社,2002:181-184.Chen R S.Typhoon[M].Fuzhou:Fujian Science & Technology Publishing House,2002:181-184.
[14] 段朝霞,苏百兴,黄莉莉.0814强台风“黑格比”西折、快速移动和强度分析[J].广东气象,2010,32(1):18-21.Duan Z X,Su B X,Huang L L.Analysis of severe typhoon Hagupit with fast moving and west-turn track[J].Guangdong Meteorology,2010,32(1):18-21.
[15] 梁必骐.天气学[M].北京:中央气象局科教部,1980:221.Liang B Q.Weather[M].Beijing:Published by the Ministry of Science and Education of the Central Meteorological Administration,1980:221.
[16] 赵福吉,陆龙骅,蒋凤英.南亚高压与台风路径[J].气象,1977,3(7):9-11.Zhao F J,Lu L H,Jiang F Y.South Asian high pressure and typhoon track[J].Meteorological Monthly,1977,3(7):9-11.
[17] WMO.Global guide to tropical cyclone forecasting[M].WMO,2017:90.
[18] 唐家翔.西北太平洋台风移动的气候变化及其与大尺度引导气流的关系[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011:42.Tang J X.Climate change on typhoon movement in the northwestern Pacific and its relationship with large scale steering flow[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,2011:42.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】