上海沿海站点极大风速预报方程的细化和完善-海洋预报

上海沿海站点极大风速预报方程的细化和完善

单位：1. 上海海洋中心气象台, 上海 201306;
2. 中国气象局上海台风研究所, 上海 200030;
3. 上海市奉贤区气象局, 上海 201416

分类号：P732.4

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第一期（32-38）

摘要：

利用上海沿海14个站点2012-2019年的观测资料，分析了2 min平均风速和极大风速的关系，对沿海站点极大风速预报方程进行了细化和完善。结果表明：2 min平均风速与极大风速具有近似线性的关系；2 min平均风速和极大风速的关系不是均一分布，各站点极大风速回归方程的回归系数从沿岸到近海基本呈递减趋势；对4级以上的平均风，各站点极大风速回归方程的回归系数随风级增大基本保持不变；独立样本检验结果表明，建立的各站点极大风速回归方程能够较好地用来估计各站点的极大风速；台风影响上海沿海期间与全时间段的极大风速回归方程基本一致。

Based on the observation data of 14 coastal stations in Shanghai from 2012 to 2019, the relationship between 2-minute average wind speed and the maximum wind speed is analyzed, and the maximum wind speed prediction equation of coastal stations is refined and improved. The results show that there is an approximate linear relationship between the 2-minute average wind speed and the maximum wind speed. However, the relationship between the 2-minute average wind speed and the maximum wind speed reveals inhomogeneous distribution, and the regression coefficient of the regression equation of the maximum wind speed at each station basically decreases from the coastal to the offshore area. For the average wind over category 4, the regression coefficient of the regression equation of the maximum wind speed at each station is basically unchanged with the increase of wind category. Moreover, the results of independent sample validation show that the established regression equation of the maximum wind speed can be used to estimate the maximum wind speed of each station. The regression equation of the maximum wind speed during the period of typhoons affecting Shanghai coast is basically consistent with that of modeling period.

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