大连地区ECMWF细网格风向与实况的对比检验-海洋预报

大连地区ECMWF细网格风向与实况的对比检验

单位：1. 大连市气象服务中心, 辽宁大连 116001;
2. 大连市旅顺口区气象局, 辽宁大连 116041;
3. 空军航空大学, 辽宁锦州 121000

分类号：P732.1

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第一期（21-31）

摘要：

选取2016年1月-2018年12月ECMWF细网格10 m风资料，与大连地区8个国家气象观测站地面5类实况风向资料进行对比分析。结果表明：5类实况风向平均误差（ME）相差不大，平均绝对误差（MAE）随着预报时限延长均呈增大趋势，正点最大风MAE最小且各时限r均最大，综合来看EC 10 m风向预报与正点最大风最为接近。统计分析EC 10 m风与大连地区正点最大风向的ME和MAE，表明EC风向预报的ME均在0.1°~6°间，预报略偏向实况风的来向左侧，各时限MAE则均在36°以上。风向误差在不同风向、风级和站点中均差异明显，东风误差最大，当实况风力小于4级时，各时限ME均为正差，风级越小正差越大，4级及以上均为负差，风级越大越向负值偏离，风级越大MAE越小。ME在不同风级和风向上均存在明显的日变化。夜间误差整体大于白天，17-20时是全天误差最小的时段。对比08时和20时两个起报时次的风向ME、MAE与RMSE，总体来看08时各时限的预报风向略好于20时。

The five categories of wind direction data of eight national meteorological observation stations in Dalian area is compared with the 10-m fine-grid wind data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF or EC) from January 2016 to December 2018. The results show that the mean error (ME) of the five categories of actual wind directions is not much different, while the mean absolute error (MAE) tends to increase with the extension of the forecast time. For the punctual maximum wind of all the analysis and forecast time, MAE is the smallest and the r is the largest. Therefore, the EC 10-m wind direction forecast is the closest to the punctual maximum wind. Through statistical analysis of the ME and MAE between the EC 10-m wind and the actual punctual maximum wind direction in Dalian, it can be concluded that the ME of EC wind direction forecast is between 0.1° and 6° with a slightly bias to the left of the actual wind, and the MAE for all the analysis and forecast time is above 36°. The wind direction error varies significantly with wind directions, wind scales and stations, and the east wind shows the largest error. The ME is positive at all times when the actual scale of wind force is less than 4, and the smaller the wind scale is, the greater the positive ME will be. The ME is negative at all times when the actual scale of wind force is equal to or above 4, and the greater the wind scale is, the more negative it deviates and the smaller the MAE will be. The ME shows significant diurnal variations in different wind scales and directions. The ME at night is larger than that during the day with the smallest error between 17:00-20:00. Comparing the wind direction ME, MAE and Root Mean Square Error for the forecasts with the starting time of 08:00 and 20:00, it is found that the forecast wind direction at 08:00 is better than that at 20:00 in general.

参考文献：

[1] Pinson P, Hagedorn R. Verification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against analyses and observations[J]. Meteorological Applications, 2012, 19(4):484-500.
[2] Miller P W, Black A W, Williams C A, et al. Maximum wind gusts associated with human-reported nonconvective wind events and a comparison to current warning issuance criteria[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2016, 31(2):451-465.
[3] Patlakas P, Drakaki E, Galanis G, et al. Wind gust estimation by combining a numerical weather prediction model and statistical post-processing[J]. Energy Procedia, 2017, 125:190-198.
[4] 顾婷婷, 李晓丽, 刘丹妮, 等. 舟山跨海大桥一次强冷空气过程的精细化风场模拟[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(4):1074-1082. Gu T T, Li X L, Liu D N, et al. Simulation of highly resolved wind field on a severe cold air case over Zhoushan sea-crossing bridge[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2018, 37(4):1074-1082.
[5] 谢文锋, 王刚, 张有洋. 台风"山竹"登陆前后广东沿海珠三角机场阵风预报方法研究[J]. 气象研究与应用, 2019, 40(4):28-32. Xie W F, Wang G, Zhang Y Y. Gust forecast methods in the Pearl River Delta airports along the cast of Guangdong Proince before and after typhoon Mangkhut landing[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research and Application, 2019, 40(4):28-32.
[6] 陈子健, 陈学恩, 刘涛. 不同参数化方案试验对南黄海典型台风中心最低气压和最大风速数值模拟影响[J]. 中国海洋大学学报, 2019, 49(3):28-35. Chen Z J, Chen X E, Liu T. The effect of different parameterization schemes for the maximum wind speed and the lowest sea-level pressure of the typical typhoon for southern yellow sea area[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2019, 49(3):28-35.
[7] 潘留杰, 张宏芳, 朱伟军, 等. ECMWF模式对东北半球气象要素场预报能力的检验[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(1):111-123. Pan L J, Zhang H F, Zhu W J, et al. Forecast performance verification of the ECMWF model over the northeast hemisphere[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(1):111-123.
[8] 吴俞, 冯文, 李勋, 等. ECMWF细网格10m风场产品在南海海域的预报检验[J]. 西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 40(9):204-212. Wu Y, Feng W, Li X, et al. On forecast test of ECMWF 10 m wind field products in South China Sea[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2015, 40(9):204- 212.
[9] 蔡晓杰, 戴建华, 朱智慧, 等. 上海沿岸海域风场质量控制与预报检验[J]. 气象科技, 2019, 47(2):214-221. Cai X J, Dai J H, Zhu Z H, et al. Quality control and forecast verification of wind field in coastal waters of Shanghai[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2019, 47(2):214-221.
[10] 孙逸涵, 何晓凤, 周荣卫. 不同背景场近地层风速的预报效果检验[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(12):2481-2490. Sun Y H, He X F, Zhou R W. Evaluation of forecasting results of wind speed based on different background fields in the surface Laye[J]. Resources Science, 2013, 35(12):2481-2490.
[11] 曾瑾瑜, 韩美, 吴幸毓, 等. WRF、EC和T639模式在福建沿海冬半年大风预报中的检验与应用[J]. 海洋科学, 2015, 39(7):75- 85. Zeng J Y, Han M, Wu X Y, et al. Test and application of WRF, EC and T639 Models in strong wind forecasting in Fujian Coast in winter half year[J]. Marine Sciences, 2015, 39(7):75-85.
[12] 刘彬贤, 陈宏, 左涛, 等. 基于EC集合预报的渤海灾害性大风风速预报方法研究[J]. 海洋预报, 2018, 35(2):19-26. Liu B X, Chen H, Zuo T, et al. EC ensemble forecast on severe gale speed in the Bohai Sea[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2018, 35(2):19- 26.
[13] 夏晓玲, 尚媛媛, 郑奕. 贵州省数值预报风速产品检验及订正[J]. 中低纬山地气象, 2019, 43(6):30-36. Xia X L, Shang Y Y, Zheng Y. Verification and revision of numerical models for wind speed forecast in Guizhou Province[J]. Mid-Low Latitude Mountain Meteorology, 2019, 43(6):30-36.
[14] 代冰冰, 王杰, 孙亚林. 丽江机场地面风场特征及气象保障分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2016, 36(1):86-90. Dai B B, Wang J, Sun Y L. Analysis on surface wind field characteristics and meteorological safeguard service of Lijiang airport[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2016, 36(1):86-90.
[15] 马宇琪. 影响洛阳机场能见度的气象要素统计分析[J]. 科技资讯, 2019, 17(30):234-235. Ma Y Q. Statistical analysis of meteorological factors affecting visibility of Luoyang airport[J]. Science & Technology Information, 2019, 17(30):234-235.
[16] 毕波, 赵建伟, 杨航. 大理机场风特征分析及对飞行的影响[J]. 中低纬山地气象, 2019, 43(1):50-54. Bi B, Zhao J W, Yang H. Analysis of the wind characteristics of Dali airport and its influence on flight[J]. Mid-Low Latitude Mountain Meteorology, 2019, 43(1):50-54.
[17] 徐伟, 张蕾, 漆梁波, 等. 地面风对上海城市热岛影响的观测分析[J]. 气象, 2019, 45(9):1262-1277. Xu W, Zhang L, Qi L B, et al. Observation analysis of the influence of surface wind on urban heat island in Shanghai[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2019, 45(9):1262-1277.
[18] 张婉莹, 孙秀博, 李岚, 等. 辽宁沿海高速公路浓雾气候特征及气象影响因子[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2020, 36(1):67-73. Zhang W Y, Sun X B, Li L, et al. Climate characteristics and meteorological impact factors of heavy fog along Liaoning coast expressway[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(1):67-73.
[19] 王博妮, 张雪蓉, 孙明, 等. 江苏地区雨雾天气特征及成因研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2020, 36(1):58-66. Wang B N, Zhang X R, Sun M, et al. Characteristics and formation mechanism of precipitation fog events in Jiangsu province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(1):58-66.
[20] 吴战平, 白慧, 陈早阳, 等. 贵阳市两次空气污染过程的气象条件分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2019, 37(5):827-835. Wu Z P, Bai H, Chen Z Y, et al. Analysis of meteorological conditions of two air pollution processes in Guiyang[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2019, 37(5):827-835.
[21] 李淑婷, 李霞, 钟玉婷, 等. 2017-2018年阿克达拉O3浓度特征及气象因子分析[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2020, 14(1):115-122. Li S T, Li X, Zhong Y T, et al. Variation characteristics and meteorological factors of surface ozone concentration in Akedala in recent two years[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2020, 14(1):115-122.
[22] 曾晓青, 薛峰, 姚莉, 等. 针对模式风场的格点预报订正方案对比[J]. 应用气象学报, 2019, 30(1):49-60. Zeng X Q, Xue F, Yao L, et al. Comparative study of different error correction methods on model output wind field[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2019, 30(1):49-60.
[23] 吴曼丽, 王瀛, 袁子鹏, 等. 基于自动站资料的海上风客观预报方法[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2013, 29(1):84-88. Wu M L, Wang Y, Yuan Z P, et al. An objective forecast method on sea wind based on data from automatic weather stations[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2013, 29(1):84-88.
[24] 吕明华, 闫江雨, 姚仁太, 等. 风向的统计方法研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2012, 28(3):83-89. Lv M H, Yan J Y, Yao R T, et al. Study on the statistical method of wind direction[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2012, 28(3):83-89.
[25] 胡海川, 黄彬, 魏晓琳. 我国近海洋面10 m风速集合预报客观订正方法[J]. 气象, 2017, 43(7):856-862. Hu H C, Huang B, Wei X L. Objective correction method of ensemble forecast of 10 m winds on Chinese offshore[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2017, 43(7):856-862.
[26] 任晨辰, 段明铿. ECMWF全风速场集合预报结果的偏差订正与预报不一致性分析[J]. 大气科学学报, 2019, 42(3):360-369. Ren C C, Duan M K. Calibration and inconsistency analysis of ECMWF wind speed ensemble forecasts[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, 42(3):360-369.
[27] 石岚, 徐丽娜, 郝玉珠. 基于风速高相关分区的风电场风速预报订正[J]. 应用气象学报, 2016, 27(4):506-512. Shi L, Xu L N, Hao Y Z. The correction of forecast wind speed in a wind farm based on partitioning of the high correlation of wind speed[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2016, 27(4):506-512.
[28] 杨景泰, 隋玉秀, 肖剑, 等. 大连地区ECMWF细网格10 m风场与观测实况对比与检验[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2021, 37(1):73- 81. Yang J T, Sui Y X, Xiao J, et al. Comparison and verification of 10-m wind field based on ECMWF fine grid and observations in Dalian[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(1):73-81.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】