全球热带气旋破坏力的气候特征-海洋预报

全球热带气旋破坏力的气候特征

单位：1. 中山大学大气科学学院/广东省气候变化与自然灾害研究重点实验室, 广东珠海 519082;
2. 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室 (珠海), 广东珠海 519082

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2021·38·第六期（33-47）

摘要：

利用国际热带气旋最佳路径资料集的历史热带气旋（TC）资料和Hadley中心海冰和海表温度资料集的海表温度（SST）数据，对能量耗散指数（PDI）、风破坏力评级指数（WDP）和风暴潮与波浪破坏力评级指数（SDP）进行统计，研究了1949—2019年近70 a来全球海域TC破坏力的时空变化特征。结果发现：全球各海区累积破坏力主要集中在夏秋季节，而北印度洋呈现双峰型分布，活跃在春末夏初和秋季；全球海域中，西太平洋TC累积破坏力最强，北印度洋最小。WDP和SDP平均评级比累积评级的活跃期长； TC频数少但破坏力大，或风破坏力小但风暴潮与波浪破坏力大的月份，容易造成预期之外的破坏。全球各海区PDI的年际变化表现出较为一致的线性增长，且具有明显的周期性变化； WDP和SDP年际变化缓慢，波动不大。除北印度洋，全球各海区PDI、WDP和SDP均与相应区域的平均SST存在较强的正相关关系，TC破坏力将随全球变暖的加剧而显著增大。

The historical tropical cyclone (TC) data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data from Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset are employed to make statistics on the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), Wind Destructive Potential (WDP) and Storm Surge and Wave Destructive Potential (SDP) for studying the temporal and spatial variability of destructive potential of TCs in global seas from 1949 to 2019. The main conclusions are as follows:The accumulated PDI, WDP and SDP are mainly concentrated in summer and autumn, except for the North Indian Ocean (NI), which presents a bimodal distribution and is active in late spring and early summer and autumn. The accumulated destructive potential of TCs is the strongest in the Western Pacific and the smallest in NI. The average WDP and SDP have a longer active period than accumulated ratings. The months with low frequencies but high destructive potential of TCs or low wind destructive potential but high storm surge and wave destructive potential are prone to cause unexpected damage. The interannual variability of PDI in global seas show relatively consistent linear growth, and there are obvious periodic variation. However, WDP and SDP vary slowly with little fluctuation. Except for NI, PDI, WDP and SDP in global seas have strong positive correlations with the average SST of the corresponding regions, so the destructive potential of TCs will increase significantly with the intensification of global warming.

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