基于CMIP5数据评估气候变化下西北航道风能资源的未来变化-海洋预报

基于CMIP5数据评估气候变化下西北航道风能资源的未来变化

单位：国防科技大学气象海洋学院, 江苏南京 211101

分类号：TK81

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2021·38·第四期（76-86）

摘要：

定量评估14个CMIP5全球气候模式再现西北航道历史阶段近地表风速的能力后，使用由多个性能优异的模式集成的风速数据，用于量化评估在3个未来时间段以及多个辐射强迫情景下与历史阶段风能密度的差异，以全面分析气候变化对西北航道未来风能资源的潜在影响。结果表明：与历史阶段相比，西北航道南部（70°N以南）大陆风能资源将会减少，但其北部地区（70°N以北）特别是波弗特海西侧未来风能资源会增加，到21世纪末，如果不采取任何缓解温室气体排放的措施，该地区风能资源增幅更大且年内变化将出现十分显著的增加，这种变异性的大幅增加，将给该区域的风能开发带来极大挑战。

This paper quantitatively assesses the ability of 14 global climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in reproducing historical near-surface wind speed in the Northwest Passage, evaluates the difference of wind energy density between three future time periods with multiple radiation forcing scenarios and the historical period by using integrated wind speed data of multiple models with excellent performance, and comprehensively analyzes the potential impact of climate change on the future wind energy resources of the Northwest Passage. The results show that compared with the historical stage, the continental wind energy resources will decrease in the southern part of the Northwest Passage (south of 70° N) and will increase in its northern region (north of 70°N), especially west of the Beaufort Sea. By the end of 21st century, the wind energy resources will increase even more with significantly increased annual changes in that region if no measures are taken to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, which would post a great challenge for the development of wind energy.

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