北太平洋维多利亚模态对西太平洋暖池面积和东边界的影响研究-海洋预报

北太平洋维多利亚模态对西太平洋暖池面积和东边界的影响研究

单位：1. 兰州理工大学理学院, 甘肃兰州 730050;
2. 北京师范大学地理科学学部, 北京 100875;
3. 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 四川成都 610225

分类号：P731.11

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2020·37·第六期（31-43）

摘要：

利用HadISST再分析资料和IAP次表层海温资料，分析了维多利亚模态（VM）对西太平洋暖池面积（WPA）范围的扩展和东边界（WPEB）纬向运移的影响。结果表明：春季VM的强度对当年夏季至次年夏季的WPA有很强的影响，同时也对WPEB东西方向的移动位置起着十分重要的作用。当春季VM为正位相时，会在随后的夏季引起赤道太平洋中部海表温度SST异常变暖，同时西赤道太平洋会产生异常西风，从而加强了赤道东传Kelvin波，使赤道海洋表层暖水向东传播，WPEB向东移，WPA范围扩大。相反，当春季VM为负位相时，WPA的范围的扩展会被抑制而缩小，同时也会影响WPEB向西运移；其次，VM也可以通过影响赤道西太平洋次表层海温来进一步影响WPA的扩展和WPEB的纬向运移。另外，结论还表明VM与WPEB的相关关系超前VM与WPA关系一个季度左右，且前者相关系数更高。同时春季VM指数可以超前1 a左右对WPA的变化趋势和WPEB的位置进行有效的预测。

In this paper, we analyze the influence of Victoria mode (VM) on the expansion of the western Pacific warm pool area (WPA) and the position of the western Pacific warm pool eastern boundary (WPEB) using HadISST reanalysis data and Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) subsurface SST dada. The results show that the intensity of the VM during spring (Feb-Apr) has a strong impact on the WPA between the following two summers. Meanwhile, it also plays a very important role in the meridional position of WPEB. In positive VM cases, the SST in the central equatorial Pacific will be abnormally warmer in the subsequent summer and westerly anomalies will occur in the western equatorial Pacific, which strengthens the eastward equatorial Kelvin wave and results in the eastward migration of WPEB and a wider WPA. In negative VM cases, the extension of WPA will be suppressed and reduced, and the WPEB tends to move westward. Furthermore, VM could affect the expansion of WPA and zonal migration of WPEB by its influence on the subsurface ocean temperature in the western equatorial Pacific. The results also show that the VM index can be used to effectively predict the trend of WPA and the location of WPEB one year in advance.

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