北大西洋温带气旋的时空变化特征分析-海洋预报

北大西洋温带气旋的时空变化特征分析

单位：1. 自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
3. 中国海洋大学, 山东青岛 266100;
4. 湖北省孝感市气象局, 湖北孝感 432000

分类号：P443

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2020·37·第五期（1-11）

摘要：

基于ECMWF 1979—2016年ERA-interim海平面气压场再分析数据，利用气旋自动追踪算法，建立了北半球大西洋区域温带气旋数据集。基于这套数据集，计算了逐季节气旋的个数、强度、空间分布以及爆发性发展等气候特征。研究表明：北大西洋区域的气旋年总数有增加趋势，但未达到显著水平，存在3~4 a的显著性周期；气旋个数的季节差异不大，冬季强气旋以及爆发性气旋所占比例均为各季节中最高，夏季则相反。除秋季外，爆发性气旋数量都表现出显著的增加趋势，特别是2010年以后，强爆发性气旋数量增加明显。气旋发生爆发性增长的区域集中分布在北大西洋的西南象限，特别是紧邻北美东海岸区域。北大西洋气旋多于近岸生成，包括北美东南沿海和欧洲西海岸沿岸。北大西洋气旋主要路径受西风带的影响，以西南-东北路径从北美沿海移向东北，进入北大西洋，有1/5的气旋能进入北极极区，进入极区的位置集中分布在格陵兰岛以东，气旋的路径密度随着时间不断变化，具有季节性和地域性。

An extratropical cyclone dataset is calculated for the North Atlantic based on the ECMWF ERAInterim sea-level pressure reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016 and the cyclone automatic tracking algorithm. The dataset is used to analyze the characteristics of cyclone number, intensity and spatial distribution on seasonal scale and the explosive cyclones. It is found that the cyclone frequency shows a slightly increasing trend with a period of 3~4 years in the North Atlantic. There is little seasonal difference in the cyclone number, while the strong cyclones and explosive cyclones occur most frequently in winter and least frequently in summer. The number of explosive cyclone shows a significant increase trend throughout the year except in autumn, especially for the period after 2010. The location of explosive growth of the cyclone is concentrated in the southwestern quadrant of the North Atlantic, especially for the area by the eastern coast of North America. The cyclones in the North Atlantic usually occur near the coast including the southeastern coast of North America and the western coast of Europe. The main path of the cyclones is affected by the westerlies, and the cyclones enter the North Atlantic following a southwest-northeast direction from the North American coast. One fifth of the cyclones enter the Arctic, which is concentrated in the area east of the Greenland. The track density of the cyclones varies with time with seasonal and spatial variation.

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