我国极地数值天气预报系统的初步建立与应用-海洋预报

我国极地数值天气预报系统的初步建立与应用

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P456.7

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2017·34·第四期（1-10）

摘要：

国家海洋环境预报中心的极地数值天气预报系统基于Polar WRF极地中尺度数值大气模式和3DVAR资料同化方法，预报区域的最高水平分辨率设置为3.3 km。检验表明：该数值预报系统较好地反映了极地地区的短期天气形势及要素的演变特点，能够基本满足我国极地考察和航运气象保障需求。五年多以来，该数值天气预报系统除了提供极地地区常规数值天气预报产品外，还陆续在“雪龙”破冰船冰区脱困、我国商船北极航道开拓、固定翼飞机南极内陆飞行等气象保障工作中发挥了重要作用。未来，极地数值天气预报系统将在数据源、模式方案、产品开发、服务体系等方面继续完善，以期为我国极地考察事业和极地航运事业提供更加可靠的气象保障。

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center has established an operational polar numerical weather forecasting system (PNWFS), which is based on mesoscale numerical model Polar WRF and 3DVAR data assimilation method with a spatial resolution as high as 3.3 km. Validation result shows that PNWFS can predict the evolution characteristics of short-term weather pattern over Polar Regions, and therefore meet the needs of Chinese Antarctic and Arctic expedition as well as commercial shipping. Within the past five years, in addition to regularly providing numerical weather prediction products for Polar Regions, PNWFS also performs well in the weather forecasting support of several important events, such as (1) the rescuing of XUELONG icebreaker which was trapped in Antarctica sea ice in 2014, (2) the first cruise of Chinese commercial vessel in Arctic passage in 2013, and (3) the operating of Chinese fixed-wing aircraft in Antarctica. In future, more efforts will be made to PNWFS in the aspects of data sources, development of model and product, and the product distribution, in order to provide a more accurate and reliable weather protection for Chinese polar scientific expedition and shipping industry.

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