北部湾台风风暴潮数值模拟及重点区域风险分析-海洋预报

北部湾台风风暴潮数值模拟及重点区域风险分析

单位：1. 长沙理工大学水利工程学院, 湖南长沙 410004;
2. 水科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室, 湖南长沙 410004

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2017·34·第三期（32-40）

摘要：

基于Delft3D模型建立了适用于北部湾海域的台风风暴潮数学模型，同时根据进入北部湾海域67 a （1949—2015年）历史台风资料，采用蒙特卡罗方法随机构造55场台风进行风暴增水计算，并选取受风暴潮影响最严重的铁山港与最频繁的涠洲岛进行了风险分析。结果表明：（1）从铁山湾下侧进入北部湾海域，中心气压为952 hPa的台风会造成石头埠站风暴增水为3.68 m，达到1 000 a一遇的级别；（2）广西沿岸的风暴增水对经过北部湾海域的台风存在滞后效应；（3）涠洲岛风暴增水普遍较低，但进入北部湾的台风均会在涠洲岛产生风暴潮，因此要做好涠洲岛的防护工程以防止海岸线继续后退。

A mathematic model of typhoon storm surge for the Beibu Gulf was established based on Delft3D hydrodynamic models,and the Monte Carlo method was used to generate 55 typhoons randomly according to the historical typhoon data of 67 a (1949—2015) in the Beibu Gulf.A study on hazard research of the most severe area (Tieshan Bay) and the most frequent area (Weizhou Island) affected by storm surge has been carried out by storm surge calculation with the generated typhoons.The result showed that (1) the surge at Shitoubu station affected by a typhoon with central pressure of 952 hPa is 3.68 m which return period is 1 000 a.(2) The storm surge at the coast of Guangxi has lagged effect on the typhoon passing through the Beibu Gulf.(3) The storm surge at Weizhou Island is generally low,but the typhoon into the Beibu Gulf will generate a storm surge here.Hence,the protection project at Weizhou Island should be prepared to prevent the coastline continues to retreat.

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