超强台风“威马逊”强度变化条件的诊断分析-海洋预报

超强台风“威马逊”强度变化条件的诊断分析

单位：1. 31010部队, 北京 100081;
2. 解放军理工大学气象海洋学院, 江苏南京 211101

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2016·33·第六期（51-56）

摘要：

通过对台风年鉴基本资料和NCEP 1°×1°格点资料进行分析，总结了“威马逊”在整个生命史内的强度变化，运用天气学和动力学诊断方法，分析了“威马逊”活动的环境场特征，结果表明：“威马逊”在整个生命史内，有3个急剧增强的时刻和1个急剧减弱时刻；中低层的垂直切变与中高层垂直切变与3个急剧增强过程相关性较好，两者的急剧减小对TC的急剧增强有较强的指示意义；“威马逊”的强度变化与总水汽净流入有近似一致的关系，西边界和南边界对台风的加强具有正贡献，东边界和北边界是台风水汽流出的方向；低层的质量净流入较大，高层的质量净流出较强时，表明高低空的配合较好，有利于TC的发展。

Based on the NCEP reanalysis data and the typhoon routine observation data, the environmental field characteristics and the strength change of super typhoon Rammasun is analyzed using the synoptic and dynamic diagnosis method. The results show that in the whole life cycle there are three rapid intensification moments and one rapid weakening moment. The vertical shears at middle-low layer and middle-high layer have a good correlation with the three rapid intensification process, and the rapid reducing of vertical shears has a significant symbol for the rapid intensification of TC. The intension variation of the typhoon has approximate agreement with the total water vapor transport. The water vapor transport from the western and southern boundaries of the typhoon is in favor of the strength of Rammasun, while the water vapor flows out of the eastern boundary and the northern boundary of the typhoon. The strong low-level convergence and upper-level divergence provides the favorable dynamic conditions for the development of Rammasum.

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