中国近海风场未来气候变化统计降尺度预估-海洋预报

中国近海风场未来气候变化统计降尺度预估

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2016·33·第四期（34-45）

摘要：

利用经验正交分解和多元回归相结合的方法，基于1992—2011年逐日0.25°×0.25°经纬度网格卫星反演风场和欧洲中期数值预报中心1.5°×1.5°经纬度网格的再分析海表面风场和气压场资料，建立了中国近海海表面风场的统计降尺度模型，并对模型进行了验证。将该模型应用到全球耦合模式比较计划中的8个模式输出场，对1986—2005年历史气候态模拟和2026—2045年3个不同排放情景下中国近海海表面风场的变化特征进行评估。结果表明：统计降尺度模型的交叉验证显示其较好的再现了海表面风场（SSWS）的气候态空间分布；与观测对比表明，利用模式模拟数据进行统计降尺度分析的空间分布型的模拟上要优于直接插值结果；相对于历史模拟参考时段，未来各RCP情景冬季SSWS整体变化不大，空间分布均表现为约25°N以南海域SSWS增加，夏季SSWS整体表现为略微的增加，增加主要区域为山东半岛中国黄海海域，台湾岛以东中国东海海域以及南海部分海域，不同情景之间SSWS变化的幅度和区域大小均不相同。

The statistical downscaling method based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) is applied to downscale sea surface wind speed (SSWS) in the target region (TR) of North West Pacific near China in this paper. The statistical downscaling model (SDM) is derived from the low resolution ECMWF reanalyzes SSWS and sea level pressure (SLP) data and the high resolution Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) SSWS data over an independent period 1992—2011, then tested by using cross-validation method. Finally, the multiple climate models within the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) scenarios over 2026—2045 are downscaled to project the climate change for the 21st century. The results show that the SDM exhibits significant skill in reproducing the SSWS climatology with a high average spatial correlation coefficient of 0.87. Compared with observed data, the downscaling result of CMIP5 models output under historical scenario (1986—2005) show better performance than directly Bilinear Interpolation result. With respect to the reference period 1986—2005, the TR winter SSWS strengthens (weakens) in the north (south) of about 25°N, while change little as a whole. The TR summer SSWS slightly increase over the Yellow Sea near Shandong Peninsula, the East Sea near the east of Taiwan and certain regions of the South China Sea. These changes might result from decreased (increased) winter (summer) land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asia Continent and the western North Pacific.

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