基于路径分类的登陆中国热带气旋时空特征分析-海洋预报

基于路径分类的登陆中国热带气旋时空特征分析

单位：天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300072

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2016·33·第三期（65-70）

摘要：

利用中国气象局提供的1972—2013 年登陆中国的西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集,根据TC的风速和地理位置,采取K-means聚类算法确定其路径分类;统计分析登陆TC总体和各类别的时空演变特征,包括生成位置、路径形状、活动季节及频数和强度。结果表明:登陆TC可分为5 类,包括直行路径(A、B和D类)和转向路径(C、E类)。A、D类主要登陆华南;B、E类以登陆台湾岛及华东沿海为主;C 类主要登陆华东中部沿海地区。生成位置自西向东越靠近150°E 的登陆TC,其平均强度相对越大。总体登陆TC的年均频数呈增加趋势,年均强度呈减弱趋势。登陆强度以STS和TY等级为主,占65.8%;STY和Super TY等级仅占13.1%,主要集中在B、D、E类。

Based on the best-track data set at 6-hourly sampling frequency over the period 1972—2013 available from China Meteorological Administration, classifications of the landfall TC tracks in the Northwestern Pacific are proposed by K-means cluster algorithm according to the wind speed and geographic location. Then, these clusters are statistically analyzed in terms of the spatial-temporal evolution features, including genesis location, trajectory shape, seasonality, frequency and intensity in each cluster and all. The results show that the landfall TC tracks are classified as five clusters, including straight-moving track types (A, B and D) and recurving track types (C and E). Cluster A and cluster D mainly land South China; Cluster B and cluster C are given priority to East China; Cluster E principally tends to East China and the north of South China. The annual average frequency of all landfall TCs has an increasing trend while the average intensity has a tendency of weakening. The closer 150° E the genesis locations are, the greater relatively the average intensity is. The landing intensity stage is mainly STS and TY with a proportion of 65.8%.The STY and Super TY only account for 13.1%, which primarily focus on cluster B, cluster D and cluster E.

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