我国冬季气温的趋势变化特征及其影响因子分析-海洋预报

我国冬季气温的趋势变化特征及其影响因子分析

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P423.3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2015·32·第六期（49-57）

摘要：

利用国家气候中心提供的中国160站逐月气温数据集、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据中心提供的大气环流数据、NOAA提供的全球海表温度数据及美国冰雪中心的海冰数据,分析了1951-2011年我国冬季气温异常的时空变化特征。应用经验正交函数分解得到中国冬季气温变化的两种典型空间分布型态-全国一致型和南北相反型,三次样条函数拟合结果表明这两种分布型态均具有显著的趋势变化特征。同时,分别探讨了大气环流及外强迫因子的趋势变化及其对中国冬季气温变化趋势的影响,并综合分析了影响我国冬季气温趋势变化的海温(冰)等外强迫因子与东亚大气环流系统之间的相互配置及贡献。结果表明,强的热带海温异常变化是影响东亚大气环流及冬季气温变化的最主要外强迫因子。当热带印度洋与赤道中东太平洋海温同时偏高(低)时,冬季西伯利亚高压强度偏弱(强),AO处于正(负)位相,东亚冬季风强度偏弱(强),冬季气温呈一致偏高(低)变化;当热带印度洋海温偏高(低),赤道中东太平洋海温偏低(高)时,东亚冬季风强度偏弱(强),AO指数为负(正)位相,西伯利亚高压偏弱(强)的配置时,冬季气温易呈北冷(暖)南暖(冷)趋势变化。

Based on the monthly air temperature of 160 stations obtained from BCC (Beijing Climate Center), the atmospheric circulation data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the global SST datasets from NOAA and the sea ice data from NSIDC, spatial-temporal variation characteristics of winter temperature anomalies in China during 1951-2011 are analyzed. Results of EOF show that there are two typical spatial distribution modes of winter temperature changes in China, i.e. the uniform mode and North-South opposite mode. Cubic spline functions analysis reveals that both the two typical modes have significant variation trend. Meanwhile, the influences of atmospheric circulation and external forcing factors on the variation trends of winter temperature in China are analyzed by using cubic spline functions, and the distribution and each contribution of influence factors are discussed. Results show that stronger anomalies variations of tropical SST are the crucial external forcing factors of East Asia atmospheric circulation and winter temperature variation in China. When the warmer (cooler) SSTA appears over tropical Indian Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific, the winter Siberia High is weaker(stronger), and AO is in positive(negative) phase, and then the east Asia winter monsoon is weaker(stronger), then the winter temperature in China is warmer(cooler); when the SSTA over tropical Indian Ocean is warmer(cooler) and SSTA over eastern equatorial Pacific is cooler(warmer), and the east Asia winter monsoon is weaker(stronger), and AO is in negative(positive) phase, and then winter Siberia High is weaker(stronger), then the winter temperature in north China is cooler(warmer) and in south is warmer(cooler).

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