北印度洋风浪流数值预报系统:II-检验分析-海洋预报

北印度洋风浪流数值预报系统:II-检验分析

单位：1. 海军海洋水文气象中心, 北京 100161;
2. 清华大学计算机科学与技术系, 北京 100084;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2015·32·第三期（51-58）

摘要：

基于系统构建工作, 开展北印度洋风浪流数值预报系统后报和准业务化预报, 并利用2013 年9 月—2014 年3 月共6 个月的资料对预报结果进行了统计检验。结果显示北印度洋风浪流数值预报业务运行稳定可靠, 大气模式(WRF)72 h 预报的500 hPa 位势高度距平相关系数达到89%, 海浪模式(SWAN)的72 h 有效波高预报的相对误差低于20%, 海流模式(ROMS)的72 h 海表温度预报的均方根误差在0.5 ℃左右;同时对2013 年10 月期间孟加拉湾的超级气旋风暴“PHAILIN”的预报结果进行了分析。该风、浪、流预报系统能够较好地预报“PHAILIN”的移动路径、最低气压及相应的海浪和海流过程。该系统的试运行和检验分析结果, 对建立新一代海洋环境数值预报系统具有一定借鉴意义。

Hindcasting and quasi-operating forecasting of the North Indian Ocean wind-wave-circulation numerical forecast system were implemented for system construction and some statistical tests and verification had been done using the 6 months(from September 2013 to March 2014 )data in this paper. The results showed that the predictability and reliability of the system was perfect. The statistical results showed that the WRF simulated time series and trend analysis in 72hours of geopotential height anomaly correlation coefficient at 500 hPa was reached above 89%. The SWAN simulated result's relative error of 72 hours of significant wave height (SWH) was less than 20%. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the sea surface temperature of 72 hour forecast results in ROMS was about 0.5℃. The verification of the case (the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN) showed that the prediction of the track and the lowest central pressure of this storm, and the corresponding process of the wave and circulation were accurate. The validation and analysis of the wind-wave-circulation forecast system is expected to be a certain reference for the new generation of marine numerical prediction system.

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