进入极区温带气旋的时空变化特征分析-海洋预报

进入极区温带气旋的时空变化特征分析

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京100081

分类号：P443

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2015·32·第一期（39-45）

摘要：

基于气旋自动追踪方案, 利用ERA-Interim 逐日4 次(每6 h 一次)平均海平面气压再分析资料, 对1979—2012 年共34 年生成于65°N以南, 北上进入极圈的气旋的时空特征进行统计分析。结果表明:(1)该类气旋的数量与强度具有明显的季节变化, 呈现春夏多强度弱, 秋冬少但强度强的特点;(2)气旋年总数呈现显著减少趋势;(3)进入极区的气旋其主要源地在北大西洋一侧, 北上跨入极区的关键区域位于格陵兰岛以东的丹麦海峡以及冰岛以东的海域(60°—30°W), 气旋在该区域一年四季都很活跃;(4)该类气旋主要在50°—65°N生成, 也有在中纬度生成, 长途跋涉进入极区;(5)该类气旋在陆地上生成的比例比海上高, 尤其是在夏季, 冬季海上气旋源地相对变得活跃, 生成比例接近陆地的生成比例, 几乎各占一半。

Based on the 6 hourly sea level pressure data of ERA-Interim reanalysis over the period 1979—2012 and automated cyclone detection and tracking algorithm from Reading University, cyclones which generate south of 65°N and enter Arctic are examined, and the activities and variability are investigated. The results showed that: (1)The number and intensity of this kind of cyclones has obvious seasonal variations with more amount and weaker strength in spring and summer, less amount and stronger strength in Autumn and winter, (2) The annual number of cyclones is decreasing, and reaching significant level. (3) A large proportion of these cyclones generate from North Atlantic sector, especially, Denmark Strait is the key passage. (4) The cyclones mainly generate from 50°-65°N. (5)More cyclones generate on the sea than the land especially in summer,but almost the same in winter.

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