“菲特”台风路径和强度预报难点分析

作者：娄小芬  楼茂园  罗玲  范爱芬

单位：浙江省气象台, 浙江杭州310007

关键词：台风路径 强度 双台风 低空急流

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2015·32·第一期（10-19）

摘要：

利用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料、NOAA海温资料对其进行分析, 结果表明:(1)副高突然加强西进, 中低层高压带加强, 在台风北侧形成高压坝和强盛偏东气流, 是台风路径突然西折的主要原因;(2)“丹娜丝”的活动在一定程度上阻止了副热带高压的南落, 有利于副高南侧偏东急流的维持和加强, 对“菲特”路径的突然西折起一定作用。敏感性数值试验结果表明“双台风”效应对“菲特”登陆前进一步西折具有决定作用;(3)高低空急流的配置,产生了动力场的耦合作用, 加强了台风的对流活动, 所释放的潜热可以补偿海温降低的影响,对“菲特”在近海强度维持起到了重要作用;(4)“菲特”的强度和环境风垂直切变的演变规律基本一致, 较低的环境风垂直切变是“菲特”在近海强度维持的重要原因。

Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (1°×1°) and SST data from NOAA, they were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) the sudden strengthen and westward extend of subtropical high and the strengthen of high pressure belt in lower layer, the formation of high pressure barrier and the stronger flow on the north of the typhoon were the key causes of the path turning to the west suddenly. (2) The activity of typhoon "Danas" in some degree had blocked the south shift of subtropical high and was in favour of the maintaining and strengthening of the east flow on the southern of the subtropical high, playing a role in the path turning to the west suddenly. The sensitivity numerical experiments showed that the Fujiwhara effect of binary cyclone played the key role in the path turning to the west further. (3)The proper allocation of the high and low level jet stream produced the function of coincidence on dynamical field which strengthened the convection of typhoon and played an important role in the intensity maintaining offshore of typhoon "Fitow". (4)The evolvement rules of the typhoon intensity and the environmental vertical wind shear were coincident, and the lower environmental vertical wind shear was an important cause of the intensity maintaining offshore of typhoon "Fitow".

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